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Samger vs Hawks — GFA League 2020

Samger
Samger
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Hawks
Hawks
2/4/2023GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 5

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Samger36%
×Draw31%
Hawks33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samger
1.01
Hawks
0.95

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 73 away

creates per match

Samger
0.88
Hawks
0.86

allows per match

Samger
1.03
Hawks
1.15

finishing

Samger+0.00on par
Hawks+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Under
  • Under69
  • Over31

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samger ↓

Hawks →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–014%
0–113%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–114%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
86%14%1.5
58%42%2.5
31%69%3.5
14%86%4.5
5%95%

Double chance

Samger or draw
67%
Samger or Hawks
69%
Draw or Hawks
64%

Winning margin

Samger wins by 2+
14%
Hawks wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Samger 1+ goals
64%
Samger 2+ goals
27%
Samger 3+ goals
8%
Hawks 1+ goals
61%
Hawks 2+ goals
25%
Hawks 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Samger (draw refunded)
52%
Hawks (draw refunded)
48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
25%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samger at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.03 · 60 matches

Hawks away — creates 0.86, concedes 1.15 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samger attack 0.88 + Hawks defence 1.15 → ÷2 → 1.01

Hawks attack 0.86 + Samger defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 36%?"

Samger scores more
36%
level
31%
Hawks scores more
33%

Samger at 36% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 36% does not mean "Samger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Samger vs Hawks

Samger and Hawks drew 1-1 in GFA League on February 4, 2023.