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Hawks vs Samger — GFA League 2020

Hawks
Hawks
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Samger
Samger
5/8/2023GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 20

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 60+ matches

Hawks44%
×Draw31%
Samger25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hawks
1.13
Samger
0.78

Hawks creates 45% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 60 away

creates per match

Hawks
1.16
Samger
0.70

allows per match

Hawks
0.86
Samger
1.10

finishing

Hawks+0.00on par
Samger+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Under
  • Under70
  • Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

63%No
  • No63
  • Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hawks ↓

Samger →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
57%43%2.5
30%70%3.5
13%87%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Hawks or draw
75%
Hawks or Samger
69%
Draw or Samger
56%

Winning margin

Hawks wins by 2+
18%
Samger wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Hawks 1+ goals
68%
Hawks 2+ goals
31%
Hawks 3+ goals
11%
Samger 1+ goals
54%
Samger 2+ goals
18%
Samger 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Hawks (draw refunded)
63%
Samger (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
24%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hawks at home — creates 1.16, concedes 0.86 · 73 matches

Samger away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.10 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hawks attack 1.16 + Samger defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.13

Samger attack 0.70 + Hawks defence 0.86 → ÷2 → 0.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hawks scores more
44%
level
31%
Samger scores more
25%

Hawks at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hawks will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Hawks 0 – 3 Samger

Samger beat Hawks 3-0 in GFA League on May 8, 2023.