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Samger vs Hart Acedemy — GFA League 2020

Samger
Samger
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Hart Acedemy
Hart Acedemy
2/17/2026GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 13

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Samger35%
×Draw30%
Hart Acedemy35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samger
1.05
Hart Acedemy
1.05

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 60 home / 30 away

creates per match

Samger
0.88
Hart Acedemy
1.07

allows per match

Samger
1.03
Hart Acedemy
1.23

finishing

Samger+0.00on par
Hart Acedemy+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

58%No
  • No58
  • Yes42

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samger ↓

Hart Acedemy →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–113%
0–27%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–013%
1–114%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–17%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Samger or draw
65%
Samger or Hart Acedemy
70%
Draw or Hart Acedemy
65%

Winning margin

Samger wins by 2+
14%
Hart Acedemy wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Samger 1+ goals
65%
Samger 2+ goals
28%
Samger 3+ goals
9%
Hart Acedemy 1+ goals
65%
Hart Acedemy 2+ goals
28%
Hart Acedemy 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Samger (draw refunded)
50%
Hart Acedemy (draw refunded)
50%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
29%
Both score & under 3
14%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samger at home — creates 0.88, concedes 1.03 · 60 matches

Hart Acedemy away — creates 1.07, concedes 1.23 · 30 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samger attack 0.88 + Hart Acedemy defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.05

Hart Acedemy attack 1.07 + Samger defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 35%?"

Samger scores more
35%
level
30%
Hart Acedemy scores more
35%

Samger at 35% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 35% does not mean "Samger will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Samger vs Hart Acedemy

Hart Acedemy beat Samger 3-1 in GFA League on February 17, 2026.