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Hart Acedemy vs Samger — GFA League 2020

Hart Acedemy
Hart Acedemy
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Samger
Samger
A. Ceesay 87'
I. Manneh 65'
6/11/2026GFA LeagueGFA League · Round 28

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 30+ matches

Hart Acedemy44%
×Draw31%
Samger25%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Hart Acedemy
1.11
Samger
0.76

Hart Acedemy creates 46% more chances

Season form · 30 home / 60 away

creates per match

Hart Acedemy
1.13
Samger
0.70

allows per match

Hart Acedemy
0.83
Samger
1.10

finishing

Hart Acedemy+0.00on par
Samger+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Under
  • Under71
  • Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

64%No
  • No64
  • Yes36

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hart Acedemy ↓

Samger →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–015%
0–112%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
85%15%1.5
56%44%2.5
29%71%3.5
12%88%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Hart Acedemy or draw
75%
Hart Acedemy or Samger
69%
Draw or Samger
56%

Winning margin

Hart Acedemy wins by 2+
18%
Samger wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Hart Acedemy 1+ goals
67%
Hart Acedemy 2+ goals
30%
Hart Acedemy 3+ goals
10%
Samger 1+ goals
53%
Samger 2+ goals
18%
Samger 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Hart Acedemy (draw refunded)
64%
Samger (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
23%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hart Acedemy at home — creates 1.13, concedes 0.83 · 30 matches

Samger away — creates 0.70, concedes 1.10 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hart Acedemy attack 1.13 + Samger defence 1.10 → ÷2 → 1.11

Samger attack 0.70 + Hart Acedemy defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.76

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Hart Acedemy scores more
44%
level
31%
Samger scores more
25%

Hart Acedemy at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Hart Acedemy will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

65'
I. Manneh
87'
A. Ceesay

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

GFA League: Hart Acedemy 1–1 Samger

Hart Acedemy and Samger drew 1-1 in GFA League on June 11, 2026.

Goals: I. Manneh (65'), A. Ceesay (87').