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Şamaxı FK vs MOIK — Birinci Dasta 2019

Şamaxı FK
Şamaxı FK
FT
2 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
MOIK
MOIK
12/26/2023Birinci DastaBirinci Dasta · Round 12Şamaxı şəhər stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Şamaxı FK57%
×Draw22%
MOIK21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Şamaxı FK
1.90
MOIK
1.07

Şamaxı FK creates 78% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 88 away

creates per match

Şamaxı FK
2.23
MOIK
1.23

allows per match

Şamaxı FK
0.92
MOIK
1.56

finishing

Şamaxı FK+0.00on par
MOIK+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Şamaxı FK ↓

MOIK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–26%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Şamaxı FK or draw
79%
Şamaxı FK or MOIK
78%
Draw or MOIK
43%

Winning margin

Şamaxı FK wins by 2+
33%
MOIK wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Şamaxı FK 1+ goals
85%
Şamaxı FK 2+ goals
56%
Şamaxı FK 3+ goals
29%
MOIK 1+ goals
66%
MOIK 2+ goals
29%
MOIK 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Şamaxı FK (draw refunded)
73%
MOIK (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Şamaxı FK at home — creates 2.23, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

MOIK away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.56 · 88 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Şamaxı FK attack 2.23 + MOIK defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.90

MOIK attack 1.23 + Şamaxı FK defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 57%?"

Şamaxı FK scores more
57%
level
22%
MOIK scores more
21%

Şamaxı FK at 57% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 57% does not mean "Şamaxı FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Şamaxı FK vs MOIK

Şamaxı FK beat MOIK 2-0 in Birinci Dasta on December 26, 2023.

The match was played at Şamaxı şəhər stadionu in Shamakhi.