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MOIK vs Şamaxı FK — Birinci Dasta 2019

MOIK
MOIK
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Şamaxı FK
Şamaxı FK
4/5/2024Birinci DastaBirinci Dasta · Round 20Binə qəsəbə stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

MOIK22%
×Draw23%
Şamaxı FK55%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

MOIK
1.10
Şamaxı FK
1.87

Şamaxı FK creates 70% more chances

Season form · 88 home / 14 away

creates per match

MOIK
1.49
Şamaxı FK
2.21

allows per match

MOIK
1.53
Şamaxı FK
0.71

finishing

MOIK+0.00on par
Şamaxı FK+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

MOIK ↓

Şamaxı FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–29%
0–36%
0–43%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

MOIK or draw
45%
MOIK or Şamaxı FK
77%
Draw or Şamaxı FK
78%

Winning margin

MOIK wins by 2+
8%
Şamaxı FK wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

MOIK 1+ goals
67%
MOIK 2+ goals
30%
MOIK 3+ goals
10%
Şamaxı FK 1+ goals
85%
Şamaxı FK 2+ goals
56%
Şamaxı FK 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

MOIK (draw refunded)
29%
Şamaxı FK (draw refunded)
71%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
46%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

MOIK at home — creates 1.49, concedes 1.53 · 88 matches

Şamaxı FK away — creates 2.21, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

MOIK attack 1.49 + Şamaxı FK defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 1.10

Şamaxı FK attack 2.21 + MOIK defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.87

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

MOIK scores more
22%
level
23%
Şamaxı FK scores more
55%

Şamaxı FK at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Şamaxı FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Birinci Dasta: MOIK 0–1 Şamaxı FK

Şamaxı FK beat MOIK 1-0 in Birinci Dasta on April 5, 2024.

The match was played at Binə qəsəbə stadionu in Binə.