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Şamaxı FK vs Difai Ağsu — Birinci Dasta 2019

Şamaxı FK
Şamaxı FK
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Difai Ağsu
Difai Ağsu
4/26/2024Birinci DastaBirinci Dasta · Round 23Şamaxı şəhər stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Şamaxı FK62%
×Draw20%
Difai Ağsu18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Şamaxı FK
2.10
Difai Ağsu
1.03

Şamaxı FK creates 104% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 40 away

creates per match

Şamaxı FK
2.23
Difai Ağsu
1.15

allows per match

Şamaxı FK
0.92
Difai Ağsu
1.98

finishing

Şamaxı FK+0.00on par
Difai Ağsu+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Şamaxı FK ↓

Difai Ağsu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Şamaxı FK or draw
82%
Şamaxı FK or Difai Ağsu
80%
Draw or Difai Ağsu
38%

Winning margin

Şamaxı FK wins by 2+
38%
Difai Ağsu wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Şamaxı FK 1+ goals
88%
Şamaxı FK 2+ goals
62%
Şamaxı FK 3+ goals
35%
Difai Ağsu 1+ goals
64%
Difai Ağsu 2+ goals
28%
Difai Ağsu 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Şamaxı FK (draw refunded)
78%
Difai Ağsu (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Şamaxı FK at home — creates 2.23, concedes 0.92 · 13 matches

Difai Ağsu away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.98 · 40 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Şamaxı FK attack 2.23 + Difai Ağsu defence 1.98 → ÷2 → 2.10

Difai Ağsu attack 1.15 + Şamaxı FK defence 0.92 → ÷2 → 1.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Şamaxı FK scores more
62%
level
20%
Difai Ağsu scores more
18%

Şamaxı FK at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Şamaxı FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Birinci Dasta: Şamaxı FK 2–1 Difai Ağsu

Şamaxı FK beat Difai Ağsu 2-1 in Birinci Dasta on April 26, 2024.

The match was played at Şamaxı şəhər stadionu in Shamakhi.