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Difai Ağsu vs Şamaxı FK — Birinci Dasta 2019

Difai Ağsu
Difai Ağsu
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Şamaxı FK
Şamaxı FK
Unknown 76'
2/22/2024Birinci DastaBirinci Dasta · Round 15Şamaxı şəhər stadionu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Difai Ağsu17%
×Draw21%
Şamaxı FK62%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Difai Ağsu
0.97
Şamaxı FK
2.03

Şamaxı FK creates 109% more chances

Season form · 41 home / 14 away

creates per match

Difai Ağsu
1.24
Şamaxı FK
2.21

allows per match

Difai Ağsu
1.85
Şamaxı FK
0.71

finishing

Difai Ağsu+0.00on par
Şamaxı FK+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Difai Ağsu ↓

Şamaxı FK →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–110%
0–210%
0–37%
0–44%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–02%
2–15%
2–25%
2–33%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–12%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Difai Ağsu or draw
38%
Difai Ağsu or Şamaxı FK
79%
Draw or Şamaxı FK
83%

Winning margin

Difai Ağsu wins by 2+
6%
Şamaxı FK wins by 2+
38%

Team goals

Difai Ağsu 1+ goals
62%
Difai Ağsu 2+ goals
25%
Difai Ağsu 3+ goals
7%
Şamaxı FK 1+ goals
87%
Şamaxı FK 2+ goals
60%
Şamaxı FK 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Difai Ağsu (draw refunded)
22%
Şamaxı FK (draw refunded)
78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Difai Ağsu at home — creates 1.24, concedes 1.85 · 41 matches

Şamaxı FK away — creates 2.21, concedes 0.71 · 14 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Difai Ağsu attack 1.24 + Şamaxı FK defence 0.71 → ÷2 → 0.97

Şamaxı FK attack 2.21 + Difai Ağsu defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 2.03

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Difai Ağsu scores more
17%
level
21%
Şamaxı FK scores more
62%

Şamaxı FK at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Şamaxı FK will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

76'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Difai Ağsu vs Şamaxı FK

Difai Ağsu and Şamaxı FK drew 0-0 in Birinci Dasta on February 22, 2024.

Goals: ? (76').

The match was played at Şamaxı şəhər stadionu in Shamakhi.