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Samartex vs Nsoatreman — Premier League 2019

Samartex
Samartex
FT
2 – 0
Nsoatreman
Nsoatreman
10/14/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 6Nsenkyire Sports Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Samartex62%
×Draw26%
Nsoatreman13%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samartex
1.52
Nsoatreman
0.52

Samartex creates 192% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 45 away

creates per match

Samartex
1.40
Nsoatreman
0.58

allows per match

Samartex
0.46
Nsoatreman
1.64

finishing

Samartex+0.00on par
Nsoatreman+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

68%No
  • No68
  • Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samartex ↓

Nsoatreman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–17%
0–22%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–020%
1–110%
1–23%
1–30%
1–40%
2
2–015%
2–18%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–14%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Samartex or draw
87%
Samartex or Nsoatreman
74%
Draw or Nsoatreman
38%

Winning margin

Samartex wins by 2+
33%
Nsoatreman wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Samartex 1+ goals
78%
Samartex 2+ goals
45%
Samartex 3+ goals
20%
Nsoatreman 1+ goals
41%
Nsoatreman 2+ goals
10%
Nsoatreman 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Samartex (draw refunded)
83%
Nsoatreman (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
21%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samartex at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.46 · 68 matches

Nsoatreman away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.64 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samartex attack 1.40 + Nsoatreman defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.52

Nsoatreman attack 0.58 + Samartex defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 0.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Samartex scores more
62%
level
26%
Nsoatreman scores more
13%

Samartex at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Samartex will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Samartex 2–0 Nsoatreman

Samartex beat Nsoatreman 2-0 in Premier League on October 14, 2024.

The match was played at Nsenkyire Sports Arena in Samreboi.