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Nsoatreman vs Samartex — Premier League 2019

Nsoatreman
Nsoatreman
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Samartex
Samartex
3/10/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 23Bibiani Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Nsoatreman51%
×Draw32%
Samartex17%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Nsoatreman
1.16
Samartex
0.53

Nsoatreman creates 119% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 68 away

creates per match

Nsoatreman
1.20
Samartex
0.54

allows per match

Nsoatreman
0.52
Samartex
1.12

finishing

Nsoatreman+0.00on par
Samartex+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Under
  • Under76
  • Over24

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

72%No
  • No72
  • Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nsoatreman ↓

Samartex →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–018%
0–110%
0–23%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–021%
1–111%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–012%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–05%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
82%18%1.5
50%50%2.5
24%76%3.5
9%91%4.5
3%97%

Double chance

Nsoatreman or draw
83%
Nsoatreman or Samartex
68%
Draw or Samartex
49%

Winning margin

Nsoatreman wins by 2+
23%
Samartex wins by 2+
4%

Team goals

Nsoatreman 1+ goals
69%
Nsoatreman 2+ goals
32%
Nsoatreman 3+ goals
11%
Samartex 1+ goals
41%
Samartex 2+ goals
10%
Samartex 3+ goals
2%

Draw no bet

Nsoatreman (draw refunded)
75%
Samartex (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
17%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nsoatreman at home — creates 1.20, concedes 0.52 · 46 matches

Samartex away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.12 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nsoatreman attack 1.20 + Samartex defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.16

Samartex attack 0.54 + Nsoatreman defence 0.52 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Nsoatreman scores more
51%
level
32%
Samartex scores more
17%

Nsoatreman at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Nsoatreman will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Nsoatreman 0–1 Samartex

Samartex beat Nsoatreman 1-0 in Premier League on March 10, 2025.

The match was played at Bibiani Park in Bibiani.