Samartex 1–0 Legon Cities: Result & Stats

Samartex

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Legon Cities

11/10/2024

Premier League · Round 10Nsenkyire Sports Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Samartex58%

×Draw28%

Legon Cities14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SamartexExpected goals in this matchLegon Cities

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.39

0.53

Samartex

1.39

Legon Cities

0.53

Samartex creates 162% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 92 away

1.40

creates per match

0.59

0.46

allows per match

1.38

creates per match

Samartex

1.40

Legon Cities

0.59

allows per match

Samartex

0.46

Legon Cities

1.38

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Samartex+0.00on par

Legon Cities+0.00on par

Total goals

Under70
Over30

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No69
Yes31

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samartex ↓

Legon Cities →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–18%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

57%43%2.5

30%70%3.5

13%87%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Samartex or draw

86%

Samartex or Legon Cities

72%

Draw or Legon Cities

42%

Winning margin

Samartex wins by 2+

29%

Legon Cities wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Samartex 1+ goals

75%

Samartex 2+ goals

40%

Samartex 3+ goals

16%

Legon Cities 1+ goals

41%

Legon Cities 2+ goals

10%

Legon Cities 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Samartex (draw refunded)

80%

Legon Cities (draw refunded)

20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samartex at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.46 · 68 matches

Legon Cities away — creates 0.59, concedes 1.38 · 92 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samartex attack 1.40 + Legon Cities defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.39

Legon Cities attack 0.59 + Samartex defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 0.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Samartex scores more

58%

level

28%

Legon Cities scores more

14%

Samartex at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Samartex will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff