Legon Cities 1–1 Samartex: Result & Stats

Legon Cities

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Samartex

4/10/2024

Premier League · Round 25Dawu Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Legon Cities47%

×Draw31%

Samartex22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Legon CitiesExpected goals in this matchSamartex

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.18

0.71

Legon Cities

1.18

Samartex

0.71

Legon Cities creates 66% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 68 away

1.24

creates per match

0.54

0.88

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Legon Cities

1.24

Samartex

0.54

allows per match

Legon Cities

0.88

Samartex

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Legon Cities+0.00on par

Samartex+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Legon Cities ↓

Samartex →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–111%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–018%

1–113%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (18%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Legon Cities or draw

78%

Legon Cities or Samartex

69%

Draw or Samartex

53%

Winning margin

Legon Cities wins by 2+

21%

Samartex wins by 2+

6%

Team goals

Legon Cities 1+ goals

69%

Legon Cities 2+ goals

33%

Legon Cities 3+ goals

12%

Samartex 1+ goals

51%

Samartex 2+ goals

16%

Samartex 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Legon Cities (draw refunded)

68%

Samartex (draw refunded)

32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Legon Cities at home — creates 1.24, concedes 0.88 · 92 matches

Samartex away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.12 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Legon Cities attack 1.24 + Samartex defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.18

Samartex attack 0.54 + Legon Cities defence 0.88 → ÷2 → 0.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Legon Cities scores more

47%

level

31%

Samartex scores more

22%

Legon Cities at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Legon Cities will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff