Samartex 3–0 Basake Holy Stars: Result & Stats

Samartex

FT

3 – 0

HT: 2 – 0

Basake Holy Stars

4/27/2025

Premier League · Round 29Nsenkyire Sports Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Samartex65%

×Draw24%

Basake Holy Stars10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SamartexExpected goals in this matchBasake Holy Stars

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

0.46

Samartex

1.58

Basake Holy Stars

0.46

Samartex creates 243% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 33 away

1.40

creates per match

0.45

0.46

allows per match

1.76

creates per match

Samartex

1.40

Basake Holy Stars

0.45

allows per match

Samartex

0.46

Basake Holy Stars

1.76

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Samartex+0.00on par

Basake Holy Stars+0.00on par

Total goals

Under67
Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No71
Yes29

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samartex ↓

Basake Holy Stars →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–013%

0–16%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–19%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–016%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

87%13%1.5

60%40%2.5

33%67%3.5

15%85%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Samartex or draw

90%

Samartex or Basake Holy Stars

76%

Draw or Basake Holy Stars

35%

Winning margin

Samartex wins by 2+

36%

Basake Holy Stars wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Samartex 1+ goals

79%

Samartex 2+ goals

47%

Samartex 3+ goals

21%

Basake Holy Stars 1+ goals

37%

Basake Holy Stars 2+ goals

8%

Basake Holy Stars 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Samartex (draw refunded)

86%

Basake Holy Stars (draw refunded)

14%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

20%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samartex at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.46 · 68 matches

Basake Holy Stars away — creates 0.45, concedes 1.76 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samartex attack 1.40 + Basake Holy Stars defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.58

Basake Holy Stars attack 0.45 + Samartex defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 0.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Samartex scores more

65%

level

24%

Basake Holy Stars scores more

10%

Samartex at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Samartex will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff