Basake Holy Stars 1–0 Samartex: Result & Stats

Basake Holy Stars

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Samartex

11/24/2024

Premier League · Round 12Crosby Awuah Memorial Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Basake Holy Stars52%

×Draw31%

Samartex17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Basake Holy StarsExpected goals in this matchSamartex

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.21

0.55

Basake Holy Stars

1.21

Samartex

0.55

Basake Holy Stars creates 120% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 68 away

1.30

creates per match

0.54

0.55

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Basake Holy Stars

1.30

Samartex

0.54

allows per match

Basake Holy Stars

0.55

Samartex

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Basake Holy Stars+0.00on par

Samartex+0.00on par

Total goals

Under74
Over26

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No70
Yes30

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Basake Holy Stars ↓

Samartex →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–017%

0–19%

0–23%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–021%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (21%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

83%17%1.5

53%47%2.5

26%74%3.5

10%90%4.5

3%97%

Double chance

Basake Holy Stars or draw

83%

Basake Holy Stars or Samartex

69%

Draw or Samartex

48%

Winning margin

Basake Holy Stars wins by 2+

24%

Samartex wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Basake Holy Stars 1+ goals

70%

Basake Holy Stars 2+ goals

34%

Basake Holy Stars 3+ goals

12%

Samartex 1+ goals

42%

Samartex 2+ goals

11%

Samartex 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Basake Holy Stars (draw refunded)

76%

Samartex (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

18%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Basake Holy Stars at home — creates 1.30, concedes 0.55 · 33 matches

Samartex away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.12 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Basake Holy Stars attack 1.30 + Samartex defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.21

Samartex attack 0.54 + Basake Holy Stars defence 0.55 → ÷2 → 0.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Basake Holy Stars scores more

52%

level

31%

Samartex scores more

17%

Basake Holy Stars at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Basake Holy Stars will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Basake Holy Stars 1–0 Samartex

Basake Holy Stars beat Samartex 1-0 in Premier League on November 24, 2024.

The match was played at Crosby Awuah Memorial Stadium in Nzema Anyinase.

Basake Holy Stars vs Samartex — Premier League 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Premier League: Basake Holy Stars 1–0 Samartex