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Samartex vs Asante Kotoko — Premier League 2019

Samartex
Samartex
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Asante Kotoko
Asante Kotoko
11/23/2025Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 11Nsenkyire Sports Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Samartex47%
×Draw32%
Asante Kotoko21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Samartex
1.14
Asante Kotoko
0.65

Samartex creates 75% more chances

Season form · 68 home / 109 away

creates per match

Samartex
1.40
Asante Kotoko
0.84

allows per match

Samartex
0.46
Asante Kotoko
0.87

finishing

Samartex+0.00on par
Asante Kotoko+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

67%No
  • No67
  • Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samartex ↓

Asante Kotoko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–111%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–019%
1–112%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–17%
2–22%
2–30%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
53%47%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Samartex or draw
79%
Samartex or Asante Kotoko
68%
Draw or Asante Kotoko
53%

Winning margin

Samartex wins by 2+
20%
Asante Kotoko wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Samartex 1+ goals
68%
Samartex 2+ goals
32%
Samartex 3+ goals
11%
Asante Kotoko 1+ goals
48%
Asante Kotoko 2+ goals
14%
Asante Kotoko 3+ goals
3%

Draw no bet

Samartex (draw refunded)
69%
Asante Kotoko (draw refunded)
31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
20%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samartex at home — creates 1.40, concedes 0.46 · 68 matches

Asante Kotoko away — creates 0.84, concedes 0.87 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samartex attack 1.40 + Asante Kotoko defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.14

Asante Kotoko attack 0.84 + Samartex defence 0.46 → ÷2 → 0.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Samartex scores more
47%
level
32%
Asante Kotoko scores more
21%

Samartex at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Samartex will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Samartex 0–0 Asante Kotoko

Samartex and Asante Kotoko drew 0-0 in Premier League on November 23, 2025.

The match was played at Nsenkyire Sports Arena in Samreboi.