Asante Kotoko 1–0 Samartex: Result & Stats

Asante Kotoko

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Samartex

4/21/2024

Premier League · Round 27Baba Yara Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 68+ matches

Asante Kotoko54%

×Draw29%

Samartex17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Asante KotokoExpected goals in this matchSamartex

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.29

0.59

Asante Kotoko

1.29

Samartex

0.59

Asante Kotoko creates 119% more chances

Season form · 108 home / 68 away

1.47

creates per match

0.54

0.65

allows per match

1.12

creates per match

Asante Kotoko

1.47

Samartex

0.54

allows per match

Asante Kotoko

0.65

Samartex

1.12

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Asante Kotoko+0.00on par

Samartex+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No68
Yes32

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Asante Kotoko ↓

Samartex →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–19%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–112%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–013%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Asante Kotoko or draw

83%

Asante Kotoko or Samartex

71%

Draw or Samartex

46%

Winning margin

Asante Kotoko wins by 2+

25%

Samartex wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Asante Kotoko 1+ goals

72%

Asante Kotoko 2+ goals

37%

Asante Kotoko 3+ goals

14%

Samartex 1+ goals

45%

Samartex 2+ goals

12%

Samartex 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Asante Kotoko (draw refunded)

76%

Samartex (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Asante Kotoko at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.65 · 108 matches

Samartex away — creates 0.54, concedes 1.12 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Asante Kotoko attack 1.47 + Samartex defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.29

Samartex attack 0.54 + Asante Kotoko defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 0.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Asante Kotoko scores more

54%

level

29%

Samartex scores more

17%

Asante Kotoko at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Asante Kotoko will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff