Samarra 2–2 Naft Al-Wasat: Result & Stats

Samarra

FT

2 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Naft Al-Wasat

2/9/2022

Iraqi League · Round 20Samaraa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 14+ matches

Samarra28%

×Draw28%

Naft Al-Wasat44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SamarraExpected goals in this matchNaft Al-Wasat

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.97

1.30

Samarra

0.97

Naft Al-Wasat

1.30

Naft Al-Wasat creates 34% more chances

Season form · 14 home / 73 away

0.79

creates per match

0.96

1.64

allows per match

1.16

creates per match

Samarra

0.79

Naft Al-Wasat

0.96

allows per match

Samarra

1.64

Naft Al-Wasat

1.16

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Samarra+0.00on par

Naft Al-Wasat+0.00on par

Total goals

Under60
Over40

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No55
Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Samarra ↓

Naft Al-Wasat →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–010%

0–113%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–113%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–16%

2–24%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

90%10%1.5

66%34%2.5

40%60%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Samarra or draw

56%

Samarra or Naft Al-Wasat

72%

Draw or Naft Al-Wasat

72%

Winning margin

Samarra wins by 2+

10%

Naft Al-Wasat wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Samarra 1+ goals

62%

Samarra 2+ goals

25%

Samarra 3+ goals

7%

Naft Al-Wasat 1+ goals

73%

Naft Al-Wasat 2+ goals

37%

Naft Al-Wasat 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Samarra (draw refunded)

39%

Naft Al-Wasat (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

32%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Samarra at home — creates 0.79, concedes 1.64 · 14 matches

Naft Al-Wasat away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.16 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Samarra attack 0.79 + Naft Al-Wasat defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 0.97

Naft Al-Wasat attack 0.96 + Samarra defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Samarra scores more

28%

level

28%

Naft Al-Wasat scores more

44%

Naft Al-Wasat at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Naft Al-Wasat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff