Naft Al-Wasat 1–0 Samarra: Result & Stats

Naft Al-Wasat

FT

1 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Samarra

9/21/2021

Iraqi League · Round 1Al Najaf Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Naft Al-Wasat50%

×Draw31%

Samarra20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Naft Al-WasatExpected goals in this matchSamarra

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.20

0.64

Naft Al-Wasat

1.20

Samarra

0.64

Naft Al-Wasat creates 88% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 13 away

0.93

creates per match

0.31

0.97

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Naft Al-Wasat

0.93

Samarra

0.31

allows per match

Naft Al-Wasat

0.97

Samarra

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Naft Al-Wasat+0.00on par

Samarra+0.00on par

Total goals

Under72
Over28

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No67
Yes33

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Naft Al-Wasat ↓

Samarra →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–110%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–112%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–17%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

28%72%3.5

11%89%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Naft Al-Wasat or draw

80%

Naft Al-Wasat or Samarra

69%

Draw or Samarra

50%

Winning margin

Naft Al-Wasat wins by 2+

22%

Samarra wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Naft Al-Wasat 1+ goals

70%

Naft Al-Wasat 2+ goals

34%

Naft Al-Wasat 3+ goals

12%

Samarra 1+ goals

47%

Samarra 2+ goals

14%

Samarra 3+ goals

3%

Draw no bet

Naft Al-Wasat (draw refunded)

72%

Samarra (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

21%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Naft Al-Wasat at home — creates 0.93, concedes 0.97 · 74 matches

Samarra away — creates 0.31, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Naft Al-Wasat attack 0.93 + Samarra defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.20

Samarra attack 0.31 + Naft Al-Wasat defence 0.97 → ÷2 → 0.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Naft Al-Wasat scores more

50%

level

31%

Samarra scores more

20%

Naft Al-Wasat at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Naft Al-Wasat will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff