Salzburger AK 0–1 Kuchl: Result & Stats

Salzburger AK

FT

0 – 1

Kuchl

8/5/2023

Landesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 128 BLACK ARENA-Nonntal

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Salzburger AK18%

×Draw18%

Kuchl64%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Salzburger AKExpected goals in this matchKuchl

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.27

2.50

Salzburger AK

1.27

Kuchl

2.50

Kuchl creates 97% more chances

Season form · 45 home / 15 away

1.67

creates per match

3.27

1.73

allows per match

0.87

creates per match

Salzburger AK

1.67

Kuchl

3.27

allows per match

Salzburger AK

1.73

Kuchl

0.87

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salzburger AK+0.00on par

Kuchl+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salzburger AK ↓

Kuchl →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–16%

0–27%

0–36%

0–44%

1

1–03%

1–17%

1–29%

1–38%

1–45%

2

2–02%

2–15%

2–26%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

32%68%

Double chance

Salzburger AK or draw

36%

Salzburger AK or Kuchl

82%

Draw or Kuchl

82%

Winning margin

Salzburger AK wins by 2+

7%

Kuchl wins by 2+

42%

Team goals

Salzburger AK 1+ goals

72%

Salzburger AK 2+ goals

36%

Salzburger AK 3+ goals

14%

Kuchl 1+ goals

92%

Kuchl 2+ goals

71%

Kuchl 3+ goals

45%

Draw no bet

Salzburger AK (draw refunded)

22%

Kuchl (draw refunded)

78%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

58%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salzburger AK at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.73 · 45 matches

Kuchl away — creates 3.27, concedes 0.87 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salzburger AK attack 1.67 + Kuchl defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.27

Kuchl attack 3.27 + Salzburger AK defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 2.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Salzburger AK scores more

18%

level

18%

Kuchl scores more

64%

Kuchl at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Kuchl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff