Kuchl 1–0 Salzburger AK: Result & Stats

Kuchl

FT

1 – 0

Salzburger AK

3/16/2024

Landesliga - Salzburg · Salzburg - 16Kuchl - Andreas Wimmer Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kuchl75%

×Draw15%

Salzburger AK10%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KuchlExpected goals in this matchSalzburger AK

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.77

0.92

Kuchl

2.77

Salzburger AK

0.92

Kuchl creates 201% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 45 away

3.53

creates per match

1.44

0.40

allows per match

2.02

creates per match

Kuchl

3.53

Salzburger AK

1.44

allows per match

Kuchl

0.40

Salzburger AK

2.02

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kuchl+0.00on par

Salzburger AK+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kuchl ↓

Salzburger AK →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–12%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–17%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–16%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

29%71%

Double chance

Kuchl or draw

90%

Kuchl or Salzburger AK

85%

Draw or Salzburger AK

25%

Winning margin

Kuchl wins by 2+

54%

Salzburger AK wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Kuchl 1+ goals

94%

Kuchl 2+ goals

76%

Kuchl 3+ goals

51%

Salzburger AK 1+ goals

60%

Salzburger AK 2+ goals

23%

Salzburger AK 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Kuchl (draw refunded)

88%

Salzburger AK (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

50%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kuchl at home — creates 3.53, concedes 0.40 · 15 matches

Salzburger AK away — creates 1.44, concedes 2.02 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kuchl attack 3.53 + Salzburger AK defence 2.02 → ÷2 → 2.77

Salzburger AK attack 1.44 + Kuchl defence 0.40 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 75%?"

Kuchl scores more

75%

level

15%

Salzburger AK scores more

10%

Kuchl at 75% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 75% does not mean "Kuchl will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff