Salzburg U19 1–2 Real Madrid U19: Result & Stats

Salzburg U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Real Madrid U19

L. Sučić 50' (pen)

Miguel Gutiérrez 32'

Latasa 5'

8/22/2020

UEFA Youth League · Semi-finalsCentre sportif de Colovray

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Salzburg U1935%

×Draw21%

Real Madrid U1944%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Salzburg U19Expected goals in this matchReal Madrid U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

2.08

Salzburg U19

1.85

Real Madrid U19

2.08

Real Madrid U19 creates 12% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 25 away

2.67

creates per match

2.56

1.61

allows per match

1.04

creates per match

Salzburg U19

2.67

Real Madrid U19

2.56

allows per match

Salzburg U19

1.61

Real Madrid U19

1.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salzburg U19+0.00on par

Real Madrid U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over75
Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salzburg U19 ↓

Real Madrid U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–33%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–18%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–25%

3–33%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

75%25%3.5

55%45%4.5

35%65%

Double chance

Salzburg U19 or draw

56%

Salzburg U19 or Real Madrid U19

79%

Draw or Real Madrid U19

65%

Winning margin

Salzburg U19 wins by 2+

18%

Real Madrid U19 wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Salzburg U19 1+ goals

84%

Salzburg U19 2+ goals

55%

Salzburg U19 3+ goals

28%

Real Madrid U19 1+ goals

87%

Real Madrid U19 2+ goals

61%

Real Madrid U19 3+ goals

34%

Draw no bet

Salzburg U19 (draw refunded)

44%

Real Madrid U19 (draw refunded)

56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

66%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salzburg U19 at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.61 · 18 matches

Real Madrid U19 away — creates 2.56, concedes 1.04 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salzburg U19 attack 2.67 + Real Madrid U19 defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.85

Real Madrid U19 attack 2.56 + Salzburg U19 defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Salzburg U19 scores more

35%

level

21%

Real Madrid U19 scores more

44%

Real Madrid U19 at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Real Madrid U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

Latasa↳ Marvin

17'

B. Okoh

32'

Miguel Gutiérrez↳ Marvin

46'

L. Reischl← M. Kjærgaard

46'

S. Aigner← B. Okoh

50'

L. SučićPenalty

55'

N. Seiwald

61'

J. Gazibegovic

61'

J. Latasa

65'

N. Stosic← N. Seiwald

68'

Óscar Subiela← Marvin

71'

Pablo Rodríguez← Latasa

76'

S. Aigner

80'

C. Adamu

82'

B. Šeško← P. Pokorný

85'

Álvaro Carrillo← Sergio Arribas

86'

A. Prass← K. Adeyemi

90'

C. Gonzalez

90+4'

D. Affengruber

Salzburg

Real

1

Fuidias

5

Chust

3

⚽

2

4

6

23

7

A

▼

Marvin

8

Dotor

22

▼

Arribas

9

⚽

▼

1

22

4

3

33

▼

Okoh

13

▼

Seiwald

6

▼

Pokorný

25

⚽

Sučić

8

▼

Kjærgaard

9

Adamu

7

▼

Adeyemi

Manager: B. Svensson

46'▲L. Reischl←▼M. Kjærgaard

46'▲S. Aigner←▼B. Okoh

65'▲N. Stosic←▼N. Seiwald

82'▲B. Šeško←▼P. Pokorný

86'▲A. Prass←▼K. Adeyemi

Salzburg U19 substitutes

39Reischl5Aigner36Stosic29Šeško27Prass21Stejskal16Major

Manager: Raúl

68'▲Óscar Subiela←▼Marvin

71'▲Pablo Rodríguez←▼Latasa

85'▲Álvaro Carrillo←▼Sergio Arribas

Real Madrid U19 substitutes

20Subiela26Rodríguez12Carrillo16Alcázar25López18Piriz27Peter

Match Recap: Salzburg U19 vs Real Madrid U19

Real Madrid U19 beat Salzburg U19 2-1 in UEFA Youth League on August 22, 2020.

Goals: Latasa (5'), Miguel Gutiérrez (32'), L. Sučić (50' pen).

The match was played at Centre sportif de Colovray in Nyon.

Salzburg U19 vs Real Madrid U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Salzburg U19 vs Real Madrid U19