Real Madrid U19 3–1 Salzburg U19: Result & Stats

Real Madrid U19

FT

3 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Salzburg U19

Iker Bravo 90+4'

Jacobo Ramón 62'

Pol Fortuny 46'

K. Konaté 30' (pen)

3/1/2023

UEFA Youth League · Round of 16Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Real Madrid U1949%

×Draw21%

Salzburg U1929%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Real Madrid U19Expected goals in this matchSalzburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.10

1.59

Real Madrid U19

2.10

Salzburg U19

1.59

Real Madrid U19 creates 32% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 17 away

2.67

creates per match

1.94

1.25

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Real Madrid U19

2.67

Salzburg U19

1.94

allows per match

Real Madrid U19

1.25

Salzburg U19

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Real Madrid U19+0.00on par

Salzburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Real Madrid U19 ↓

Salzburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Real Madrid U19 or draw

71%

Real Madrid U19 or Salzburg U19

79%

Draw or Salzburg U19

51%

Winning margin

Real Madrid U19 wins by 2+

29%

Salzburg U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Real Madrid U19 1+ goals

88%

Real Madrid U19 2+ goals

62%

Real Madrid U19 3+ goals

35%

Salzburg U19 1+ goals

80%

Salzburg U19 2+ goals

47%

Salzburg U19 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Real Madrid U19 (draw refunded)

63%

Salzburg U19 (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Real Madrid U19 at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.25 · 24 matches

Salzburg U19 away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Real Madrid U19 attack 2.67 + Salzburg U19 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 2.10

Salzburg U19 attack 1.94 + Real Madrid U19 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.59

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Real Madrid U19 scores more

49%

level

21%

Salzburg U19 scores more

29%

Real Madrid U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Real Madrid U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

L. Wallner

20'

L. Reischl

30'

K. KonatéPenalty

32'

M. Yeo

46'

Pol Fortuny

60'

J. Naveros

62'

Jacobo Ramón↳ Pol Fortuny

63'

Iker Bravo← Pol Fortuny

64'

Z. Jánó← L. Reischl

64'

F. Crescenti← E. Havel

75'

Yeray Lancha← Manuel Ángel

84'

David Jiménez← N. Paz

84'

Dani Meso← César Palacios

84'

T. Paumgartner← M. Yeo

85'

Edgar Pujol← Vinícius Tobias

90+4'

Y. Perez

90+1'

D. Lechner← Mohammad Sadeqi

90+4'

Iker Bravo

Real

Salzburg

1

4

33

35

20

22

27

▼

Sadeqi

32

▼

Yeo

7

▼

Havel

9

▼

Reischl

17

⚽

Konaté

1

Piñeiro

3

Obrador

34

▼

Tobias

20

Serrano

12

⚽

Ramón

8

▼

Ángel

7

García

10

▼

Paz

22

▼

Palacios

16

⚽A

▼

Fortuny

39

Andrés

Manager: Arbeloa

63'▲Iker Bravo←▼Pol Fortuny

75'▲Yeray Lancha←▼Manuel Ángel

84'▲David Jiménez←▼N. Paz

84'▲Dani Meso←▼César Palacios

85'▲Edgar Pujol←▼Vinícius Tobias

Real Madrid U19 substitutes

41Bravo11Lancha2Jiménez37Meso4Pujol25Quetglás46Martín

Manager: F. Ingolitsch

64'▲Z. Jánó←▼L. Reischl

64'▲F. Crescenti←▼E. Havel

84'▲T. Paumgartner←▼M. Yeo

90+1'▲D. Lechner←▼Mohammad Sadeqi

Salzburg U19 substitutes

29Jánó40Crescenti37Paumgartner14Lechner21Tóth19Moswitzer38Bijelić

UEFA Youth League: Real Madrid U19 3–1 Salzburg U19

Real Madrid U19 beat Salzburg U19 3-1 in UEFA Youth League on March 1, 2023.

Goals: K. Konaté (30' pen), Pol Fortuny (46'), Jacobo Ramón (62'), Iker Bravo (90+4').

The match was played at Estadio Alfredo Di Stéfano in Madrid.

Real Madrid U19 vs Salzburg U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: Real Madrid U19 3–1 Salzburg U19