Salzburg U19 1–1 Milan U19: Result & Stats

Salzburg U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Milan U19

K. Konaté 66'

A. Coubiș 10' (pen)

9/6/2022

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 1Greisbergers Betten-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Salzburg U1961%

×Draw20%

Milan U1919%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Salzburg U19Expected goals in this matchMilan U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.27

1.20

Salzburg U19

2.27

Milan U19

1.20

Salzburg U19 creates 89% more chances

Season form · 19 home / 11 away

2.63

creates per match

0.82

1.58

allows per match

1.91

creates per match

Salzburg U19

2.63

Milan U19

0.82

allows per match

Salzburg U19

1.58

Milan U19

1.91

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salzburg U19+0.00on par

Milan U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over67
Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salzburg U19 ↓

Milan U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–25%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

67%33%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Salzburg U19 or draw

81%

Salzburg U19 or Milan U19

80%

Draw or Milan U19

39%

Winning margin

Salzburg U19 wins by 2+

39%

Milan U19 wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Salzburg U19 1+ goals

90%

Salzburg U19 2+ goals

66%

Salzburg U19 3+ goals

39%

Milan U19 1+ goals

70%

Milan U19 2+ goals

34%

Milan U19 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Salzburg U19 (draw refunded)

76%

Milan U19 (draw refunded)

24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salzburg U19 at home — creates 2.63, concedes 1.58 · 19 matches

Milan U19 away — creates 0.82, concedes 1.91 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salzburg U19 attack 2.63 + Milan U19 defence 1.91 → ÷2 → 2.27

Milan U19 attack 0.82 + Salzburg U19 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Salzburg U19 scores more

61%

level

20%

Milan U19 scores more

19%

Salzburg U19 at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Salzburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

10'

A. CoubișPenalty

33'

G. El Hilali

56'

A. Coubis

59'

Z. Jánó← R. Hofer

59'

L. Reischl← D. Lechner

61'

A. Bozzolan← D. Bartesaghi

62'

F. Scotti← H. Cuenca

66'

K. Konaté↳ M. Berki

72'

J. Longhi← A. Gala

72'

K. Zeroli← Y. El Hilali

73'

M. Gevorgyan

78'

C. Foglio← N. Pluvio

81'

T. Trummer← M. Berki

87'

D. Bijelić← M. Gevorgyan

90+4'

T. Sahin

Salzburg

Milan

69

Nava

2

⚽

Coubiș

6

Nsiala-Ma

23

Bakoune

97

▼

Bartesagh

4

Marshage

8

▼

Gala

14

▼

Pluvio

11

Traorè

10

▼

Hilali

27

▼

Cuenca

21

Krumrey

8

▼

Hofer

15

Molnar

35

▼

19

20

22

32

13

A

▼

Berki

14

▼

Lechner

17

⚽

Konaté

Manager: F. Ingolitsch

59'▲Z. Jánó←▼R. Hofer

59'▲L. Reischl←▼D. Lechner

81'▲T. Trummer←▼M. Berki

87'▲D. Bijelić←▼M. Gevorgyan

Salzburg U19 substitutes

29Jánó9Reischl12Trummer38Bijelić37Paumgartner1Tóth16Gertig

Manager: I. Abate

61'▲A. Bozzolan←▼D. Bartesaghi

62'▲F. Scotti←▼H. Cuenca

72'▲J. Longhi←▼A. Gala

72'▲K. Zeroli←▼Y. El Hilali

78'▲C. Foglio←▼N. Pluvio

Milan U19 substitutes

3Bozzolan58Scotti80Longhi18Zeroli17Foglio73Paloschi95Torriani