Milan U19 2–1 Salzburg U19: Result & Stats

Milan U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Salzburg U19

G. Alesi 52'

M. Lazetić 50'

Z. Jánó 48'

11/2/2022

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 6Puma House of Football - Centro P. Vismara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Milan U1950%

×Draw23%

Salzburg U1928%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Milan U19Expected goals in this matchSalzburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.85

1.33

Milan U19

1.85

Salzburg U19

1.33

Milan U19 creates 39% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 17 away

2.18

creates per match

1.94

0.73

allows per match

1.53

creates per match

Milan U19

2.18

Salzburg U19

1.94

allows per match

Milan U19

0.73

Salzburg U19

1.53

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Milan U19+0.00on par

Salzburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Milan U19 ↓

Salzburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

61%39%3.5

39%61%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Milan U19 or draw

72%

Milan U19 or Salzburg U19

77%

Draw or Salzburg U19

50%

Winning margin

Milan U19 wins by 2+

28%

Salzburg U19 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Milan U19 1+ goals

84%

Milan U19 2+ goals

55%

Milan U19 3+ goals

28%

Salzburg U19 1+ goals

74%

Salzburg U19 2+ goals

38%

Salzburg U19 3+ goals

15%

Draw no bet

Milan U19 (draw refunded)

64%

Salzburg U19 (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Milan U19 at home — creates 2.18, concedes 0.73 · 11 matches

Salzburg U19 away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.53 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Milan U19 attack 2.18 + Salzburg U19 defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.85

Salzburg U19 attack 1.94 + Milan U19 defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Milan U19 scores more

50%

level

23%

Salzburg U19 scores more

28%

Milan U19 at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Milan U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

28'

J. Simic

33'

D. Lechner← F. Crescenti

48'

Z. Jánó↳ M. Gevorgyan

50'

K. Konate

50'

M. Lazetić↳ A. Gala

52'

G. Alesi↳ N. Pluvio

64'

F. Mangiameli← M. Lazetić

64'

M. Yeo← Mohammad Sadeqi

70'

V. Eletu← N. Pluvio

70'

K. Zeroli← D. Stalmach

71'

R. Hofer

78'

L. Reischl← M. Pejazic

79'

T. Trummer← D. Lechner

79'

V. Sulzbacher← T. Sahin

82'

A. Bozzolan← F. Scotti

83'

A. Coubis

83'

D. Sia← G. Alesi

87'

Z. Jano

90+1'

L. Wallner

Milan

Salzburg

1

4

8

33

35

A

Gevorgyan

20

▼

Pejazic

22

▼

Sahin

27

▼

Sadeqi

29

⚽

Jánó

40

▼

17

69

5

2

23

97

16

▼

Stalmach

8

A

Gala

14

A

▼

Pluvio

12

⚽

▼

Lazetić

7

⚽

▼

Alesi

58

▼

Scotti

Manager: I. Abate

64'▲F. Mangiameli←▼M. Lazetić

70'▲V. Eletu←▼N. Pluvio

70'▲K. Zeroli←▼D. Stalmach

82'▲A. Bozzolan←▼F. Scotti

83'▲D. Sia←▼G. Alesi

Milan U19 substitutes

90Mangiameli22Eletu18Zeroli3Bozzolan61Sia95Torriani73Paloschi

Manager: F. Ingolitsch

33'▲D. Lechner←▼F. Crescenti

64'▲M. Yeo←▼Mohammad Sadeqi

78'▲L. Reischl←▼M. Pejazic

79'▲T. Trummer←▼D. Lechner

79'▲V. Sulzbacher←▼T. Sahin

Salzburg U19 substitutes

14Lechner32Yeo9Reischl12Trummer30Sulzbacher19Moswitzer21Tóth