Salzburg U19 2–3 Liverpool U19: Result & Stats

Salzburg U19

FT

2 – 3

HT: 2 – 0

Liverpool U19

T. Anselm 24'

L. Sučić 11'

J. Bearne 90+3'

T. Hill 79'

H. Elliott 67' (pen)

12/10/2019

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 6DAS.GOLDBERG Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Salzburg U1953%

×Draw20%

Liverpool U1926%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Salzburg U19Expected goals in this matchLiverpool U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.28

1.57

Salzburg U19

2.28

Liverpool U19

1.57

Salzburg U19 creates 45% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 19 away

2.67

creates per match

1.53

1.61

allows per match

1.89

creates per match

Salzburg U19

2.67

Liverpool U19

1.53

allows per match

Salzburg U19

1.61

Liverpool U19

1.89

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salzburg U19+0.00on par

Liverpool U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salzburg U19 ↓

Liverpool U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–31%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–17%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

34%66%

Double chance

Salzburg U19 or draw

74%

Salzburg U19 or Liverpool U19

80%

Draw or Liverpool U19

47%

Winning margin

Salzburg U19 wins by 2+

33%

Liverpool U19 wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Salzburg U19 1+ goals

90%

Salzburg U19 2+ goals

66%

Salzburg U19 3+ goals

39%

Liverpool U19 1+ goals

79%

Liverpool U19 2+ goals

46%

Liverpool U19 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Salzburg U19 (draw refunded)

67%

Liverpool U19 (draw refunded)

33%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salzburg U19 at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.61 · 18 matches

Liverpool U19 away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.89 · 19 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salzburg U19 attack 2.67 + Liverpool U19 defence 1.89 → ÷2 → 2.28

Liverpool U19 attack 1.53 + Salzburg U19 defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Salzburg U19 scores more

53%

level

20%

Liverpool U19 scores more

26%

Salzburg U19 at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Salzburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

11'

L. Sučić↳ D. Affengruber

21'

24'

40'

67'

67'

H. ElliottPenalty

74'

L. Stewart← E. Dixon-Bonner

78'

C. Bukta← K. Adeyemi

78'

B. Šeško← C. Adamu

79'

T. Hill↳ L. Clarkson

80'

J. Bearne← L. Longstaff

86'

T. Schiestl← T. Anselm

89'

M. Boyes← J. Norris

89'

T. Clayton← J. Cain

90+3'

J. Bearne↳ L. Stewart

Salzburg

Liverpool

1

2

4

5

3

▼

Norris

8

▼

Dixon-Bon

9

▼

Longstaff

10

▼

Cain

6

A

Clarkson

7

⚽

Elliott

11

⚽

Hill

1

Antosch

4

A

24

33

27

13

6

25

⚽

Sučić

15

⚽

▼

Anselm

9

▼

Adamu

7

▼

Adeyemi

Manager: F. Kramer

78'▲C. Bukta←▼K. Adeyemi

78'▲B. Šeško←▼C. Adamu

86'▲T. Schiestl←▼T. Anselm

Salzburg U19 substitutes

37Bukta29Šeško40Schiestl20Windhager16Major18Oroz31Schröcker

Manager: B. Lewtas

74'▲L. Stewart←▼E. Dixon-Bonner

80'▲J. Bearne←▼L. Longstaff

89'▲M. Boyes←▼J. Norris

89'▲T. Clayton←▼J. Cain

Liverpool U19 substitutes

17Stewart18Bearne15Boyes16Clayton14O'Rourke12Savage13Davies

UEFA Youth League: Salzburg U19 2–3 Liverpool U19

Liverpool U19 beat Salzburg U19 3-2 in UEFA Youth League on December 10, 2019.

Goals: L. Sučić (11'), T. Anselm (24'), H. Elliott (67' pen), T. Hill (79'), J. Bearne (90+3').

The match was played at DAS.GOLDBERG Stadion in Grödig.

Salzburg U19 vs Liverpool U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: Salzburg U19 2–3 Liverpool U19