Liverpool U19 4–2 Salzburg U19: Result & Stats

Liverpool U19

FT

4 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Salzburg U19

R. Brewster 90+3' (pen)

C. Jones 82'

N. Williams 78'

Y. Larouci 5'

S. van den Berg 63' (OG)

K. Adeyemi 21'

10/2/2019

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 2Langtree Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Liverpool U1956%

×Draw21%

Salzburg U1923%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Liverpool U19Expected goals in this matchSalzburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.19

1.36

Liverpool U19

2.19

Salzburg U19

1.36

Liverpool U19 creates 61% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 16 away

2.93

creates per match

2.00

0.73

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Liverpool U19

2.93

Salzburg U19

2.00

allows per match

Liverpool U19

0.73

Salzburg U19

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Liverpool U19+0.00on par

Salzburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Liverpool U19 ↓

Salzburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–23%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Liverpool U19 or draw

77%

Liverpool U19 or Salzburg U19

79%

Draw or Salzburg U19

44%

Winning margin

Liverpool U19 wins by 2+

34%

Salzburg U19 wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Liverpool U19 1+ goals

89%

Liverpool U19 2+ goals

64%

Liverpool U19 3+ goals

37%

Salzburg U19 1+ goals

74%

Salzburg U19 2+ goals

39%

Salzburg U19 3+ goals

16%

Draw no bet

Liverpool U19 (draw refunded)

71%

Salzburg U19 (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Liverpool U19 at home — creates 2.93, concedes 0.73 · 15 matches

Salzburg U19 away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Liverpool U19 attack 2.93 + Salzburg U19 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 2.19

Salzburg U19 attack 2.00 + Liverpool U19 defence 0.73 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Liverpool U19 scores more

56%

level

21%

Salzburg U19 scores more

23%

Liverpool U19 at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Liverpool U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'

Y. Larouci↳ R. Brewster

21'

K. Adeyemi↳ A. Prass

63'

S. van den BergOwn goal

78'

N. Williams↳ Y. Larouci

79'

J. Norris← E. Dixon-Bonner

79'

L. Longstaff← N. Williams

82'

C. Jones↳ L. Longstaff

86'

B. Šeško← L. Sučić

86'

J. Omoregie← A. Prass

90+4'

T. Clayton← H. Elliott

90+3'

R. BrewsterPenalty

Liverpool

Salzburg

1

18

4

3

27

A

▼

13

6

37

16

25

▼

Sučić

7

⚽

Adeyemi

1

Ojrzyński

6

Boyes

2

⚽

▼

Williams

3

⚽A

Larouci

4

Hoever

5

🥅

Berg

7

▼

Dixon-Bon

10

⚽

Jones

8

Clarkson

11

▼

Elliott

9

⚽A

Brewster

Manager: B. Lewtas

79'▲J. Norris←▼E. Dixon-Bonner

79'▲L. Longstaff←▼N. Williams

90+4'▲T. Clayton←▼H. Elliott

Liverpool U19 substitutes

15Norris16Longstaff14Clayton18O'Rourke13Winterbottom12Stewart17Koumetio

Manager: F. Kramer

86'▲B. Šeško←▼L. Sučić

86'▲J. Omoregie←▼A. Prass

Salzburg U19 substitutes

29Šeško38Omoregie5Aigner36Parada35Havel31Schröcker33Okoh

UEFA Youth League: Liverpool U19 4–2 Salzburg U19

Liverpool U19 beat Salzburg U19 4-2 in UEFA Youth League on October 2, 2019.

Goals: Y. Larouci (5'), K. Adeyemi (21'), S. van den Berg (63' o.g.), N. Williams (78'), C. Jones (82'), R. Brewster (90+3' pen).

The match was played at Langtree Park in St Helens, Merseyside.

Liverpool U19 vs Salzburg U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: Liverpool U19 4–2 Salzburg U19