Salzburg U19 1–1 Internazionale U19: Result & Stats

Salzburg U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Internazionale U19

Mohammad Sadeqi 76'

T. Berenbruch 81'

11/8/2023

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 4Akademie Liefering Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Salzburg U1951%

×Draw21%

Internazionale U1929%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Salzburg U19Expected goals in this matchInternazionale U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.21

1.63

Salzburg U19

2.21

Internazionale U19

1.63

Salzburg U19 creates 36% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 20 away

2.67

creates per match

1.65

1.61

allows per match

1.75

creates per match

Salzburg U19

2.67

Internazionale U19

1.65

allows per match

Salzburg U19

1.61

Internazionale U19

1.75

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salzburg U19+0.00on par

Internazionale U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over74
Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salzburg U19 ↓

Internazionale U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–14%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

90%10%2.5

74%26%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Salzburg U19 or draw

71%

Salzburg U19 or Internazionale U19

79%

Draw or Internazionale U19

49%

Winning margin

Salzburg U19 wins by 2+

30%

Internazionale U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Salzburg U19 1+ goals

89%

Salzburg U19 2+ goals

65%

Salzburg U19 3+ goals

38%

Internazionale U19 1+ goals

80%

Internazionale U19 2+ goals

48%

Internazionale U19 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Salzburg U19 (draw refunded)

64%

Internazionale U19 (draw refunded)

36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salzburg U19 at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.61 · 18 matches

Internazionale U19 away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.75 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salzburg U19 attack 2.67 + Internazionale U19 defence 1.75 → ÷2 → 2.21

Internazionale U19 attack 1.65 + Salzburg U19 defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Salzburg U19 scores more

51%

level

21%

Internazionale U19 scores more

29%

Salzburg U19 at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Salzburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

9'

A. Stankovic

27'

J. Brandtner

45+1'

S. Matjaz

46'

A. Daghim← P. Verhounig

46'

S. Leitner← J. Schuster

46'

M. Aidoo← R. Miconi

55'

R. Zikovic

64'

Z. Jánó← T. Trummer

67'

M. Zanchetta← M. Sarr

67'

E. Owusu← J. Żuberek

67'

M. Spinaccè← L. Bovo

69'

M. Pejazić← J. Brandtner

76'

Mohammad Sadeqi↳ S. Leitner

81'

T. Berenbruch↳ M. Spinaccè

84'

J. Hussauf← B. Atiabou

85'

S. Leitner

86'

D. Quieto← L. Di Maggio

90+3'

A. Daghim

Salzburg

Internazionale

1

19

13

15

3

▼

Miconi

4

Stanković

8

▼

Maggio

14

⚽

Berenbruc

5

▼

Bovo

18

▼

Żuberek

9

▼

Sarr

30

Hamzić

27

▼

Atiabou

5

▼

Schuster

39

Žiković

8

⚽

Sadeqi

14

▼

Brandtner

24

Paumgartn

37

▼

Trummer

35

Neto

9

Reischl

23

▼

Verhounig

Manager: S. Milicevic

46'▲A. Daghim←▼P. Verhounig

46'▲S. Leitner←▼J. Schuster

64'▲Z. Jánó←▼T. Trummer

69'▲M. Pejazić←▼J. Brandtner

84'▲J. Hussauf←▼B. Atiabou

Salzburg U19 substitutes

22Daghim3Leitner10Jánó20Pejazić11Hussauf25Neumann34Zawieschitzky

Manager: C. Chivu

46'▲M. Aidoo←▼R. Miconi

67'▲M. Zanchetta←▼M. Sarr

67'▲E. Owusu←▼J. Żuberek

67'▲M. Spinaccè←▼L. Bovo

86'▲D. Quieto←▼L. Di Maggio

Internazionale U19 substitutes

2Aidoo7Zanchetta10Owusu20Spinaccè11Quieto16Guercio12Raimondi

UEFA Youth League: Salzburg U19 1–1 Internazionale U19

Salzburg U19 and Internazionale U19 drew 1-1 in UEFA Youth League on November 8, 2023.

Goals: Mohammad Sadeqi (76'), T. Berenbruch (81').

The match was played at Akademie Liefering Platz 1 in Salzburg.

Salzburg U19 vs Internazionale U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: Salzburg U19 1–1 Internazionale U19