Internazionale U19 2–3 Salzburg U19: Result & Stats

Internazionale U19

FT

2 – 3

HT: 0 – 2

Salzburg U19

M. Spinaccè 90+6'

G. Vedovati 74'

B. Atiabou 90+4'

Z. Jánó 40'

A. Daghim 26'

10/24/2023

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 3KONAMI Youth Development Centre in Memory of Giacinto Facchetti

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Internazionale U1940%

×Draw22%

Salzburg U1937%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Internazionale U19Expected goals in this matchSalzburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.79

1.71

Internazionale U19

1.79

Salzburg U19

1.71

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 16 away

2.14

creates per match

2.00

1.41

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Internazionale U19

2.14

Salzburg U19

2.00

allows per match

Internazionale U19

1.41

Salzburg U19

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Internazionale U19+0.00on par

Salzburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Internazionale U19 ↓

Salzburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Internazionale U19 or draw

63%

Internazionale U19 or Salzburg U19

78%

Draw or Salzburg U19

60%

Winning margin

Internazionale U19 wins by 2+

21%

Salzburg U19 wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Internazionale U19 1+ goals

83%

Internazionale U19 2+ goals

53%

Internazionale U19 3+ goals

26%

Salzburg U19 1+ goals

82%

Salzburg U19 2+ goals

51%

Salzburg U19 3+ goals

24%

Draw no bet

Internazionale U19 (draw refunded)

52%

Salzburg U19 (draw refunded)

48%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Internazionale U19 at home — creates 2.14, concedes 1.41 · 22 matches

Salzburg U19 away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Internazionale U19 attack 2.14 + Salzburg U19 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.79

Salzburg U19 attack 2.00 + Internazionale U19 defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.71

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Internazionale U19 scores more

40%

level

22%

Salzburg U19 scores more

37%

Internazionale U19 at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Internazionale U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

26'

A. Daghim↳ Z. Jánó

40'

Z. Jánó

46'

M. Spinaccè← L. Di Maggio

47'

I. Kamate

58'

G. Vedovati← D. Quieto

58'

R. Miconi← M. Aidoo

62'

F. Crescenti← L. Reischl

63'

M. Moswitzer

65'

R. Žiković← V. Sulzbacher

71'

M. Gevorgyan

74'

G. Vedovati↳ I. Kamate

80'

M. Spinacce

80'

G. Stabile← M. Motta

82'

S. Matjaz

85'

B. Atiabou← Elione Neto

90+4'

B. Atiabou↳ F. Crescenti

90+6'

M. Spinaccè↳ F. Stante

Internazionale

Salzburg

30

44

19

5

20

10

⚽A

Jánó

24

Paumgartn

29

▼

Sulzbache

35

▼

Neto

22

⚽

Daghim

9

▼

Reischl

1

Calligari

19

Matjaž

13

▼

Motta

15

A

Stante

2

▼

Aidoo

10

A

Kamate

4

Stanković

8

▼

Maggio

5

Bovo

9

Sarr

11

▼

Quieto

Manager: C. Chivu

46'▲M. Spinaccè←▼L. Di Maggio

58'▲G. Vedovati←▼D. Quieto

58'▲R. Miconi←▼M. Aidoo

80'▲G. Stabile←▼M. Motta

Internazionale U19 substitutes

18Spinaccè17Vedovati3Miconi6Stabile12Raimondi16Guercio7Ricordi

Manager: S. Milicevic

62'▲F. Crescenti←▼L. Reischl

65'▲R. Žiković←▼V. Sulzbacher

85'▲B. Atiabou←▼Elione Neto

Salzburg U19 substitutes

45Crescenti39Žiković27Atiabou34Zawieschitzky14Brandtner37Trummer12Striednig