Salzburg U19 5–1 Chelsea U19: Result & Stats

Salzburg U19

FT

5 – 1

HT: 3 – 1

Chelsea U19

D. Lechner 90'

K. Konaté 71', 39', 33' (pen)

F. Crescenti 13'

M. Mothersille 16'

10/25/2022

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 5Greisbergers Betten-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Salzburg U1949%

×Draw20%

Chelsea U1931%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Salzburg U19Expected goals in this matchChelsea U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.26

1.77

Salzburg U19

2.26

Chelsea U19

1.77

Salzburg U19 creates 28% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 17 away

2.65

creates per match

1.94

1.60

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Salzburg U19

2.65

Chelsea U19

1.94

allows per match

Salzburg U19

1.60

Chelsea U19

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salzburg U19+0.00on par

Chelsea U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes74
No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salzburg U19 ↓

Chelsea U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–04%

1–17%

1–26%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

57%43%4.5

37%63%

Double chance

Salzburg U19 or draw

69%

Salzburg U19 or Chelsea U19

80%

Draw or Chelsea U19

51%

Winning margin

Salzburg U19 wins by 2+

29%

Chelsea U19 wins by 2+

15%

Team goals

Salzburg U19 1+ goals

89%

Salzburg U19 2+ goals

66%

Salzburg U19 3+ goals

39%

Chelsea U19 1+ goals

83%

Chelsea U19 2+ goals

53%

Chelsea U19 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Salzburg U19 (draw refunded)

61%

Chelsea U19 (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

67%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salzburg U19 at home — creates 2.65, concedes 1.60 · 20 matches

Chelsea U19 away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salzburg U19 attack 2.65 + Chelsea U19 defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 2.26

Chelsea U19 attack 1.94 + Salzburg U19 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Salzburg U19 scores more

49%

level

20%

Chelsea U19 scores more

31%

Salzburg U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Salzburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

F. Crescenti↳ K. Konaté

16'

M. Mothersille↳ J. Tauriainen

32'

J. Soonsup-Bell

33'

K. KonatéPenalty

39'

K. Konaté↳ F. Crescenti

48'

M. Gevorgyan

56'

B. Humphreys

65'

S. Thomas← J. Soonsup-Bell

65'

H. Mcmahon← Z. Sturge

69'

L. Castledine

69'

T. Paumgartner← Mohammad Sadeqi

69'

D. Lechner← F. Crescenti

71'

K. Konaté↳ Z. Jánó

75'

L. Reischl← Z. Jánó

75'

R. Žiković← T. Sahin

75'

D. Abu← F. Runham

75'

T. Mendel-Idowu← L. Castledine

79'

T. Trummer← K. Konaté

90'

D. Lechner

Salzburg

Chelsea

1

Merrick

3

Humphreys

4

▼

2

8

6

10

▼

Castledin

9

▼

Soonsup-B

5

A

Tauriaine

11

⚽

Mothersil

7

▼

1

4

8

35

19

20

22

▼

Sahin

27

▼

Sadeqi

29

A

▼

Jánó

40

⚽A

▼

Crescenti

17

⚽3A

▼

Konaté

Manager: F. Ingolitsch

69'▲T. Paumgartner←▼Mohammad Sadeqi

69'▲D. Lechner←▼F. Crescenti

75'▲L. Reischl←▼Z. Jánó

75'▲R. Žiković←▼T. Sahin

79'▲T. Trummer←▼K. Konaté

Salzburg U19 substitutes

37Paumgartner14Lechner9Reischl5Žiković12Trummer6Lebersorger21Tóth

Manager: E. Brand

65'▲S. Thomas←▼J. Soonsup-Bell

65'▲H. Mcmahon←▼Z. Sturge

75'▲D. Abu←▼F. Runham

75'▲T. Mendel-Idowu←▼L. Castledine

Chelsea U19 substitutes

17Thomas14Mcmahon16Abu15Mendel-Idowu12Murray-Campbell13Tlemcani18George

UEFA Youth League: Salzburg U19 5–1 Chelsea U19

Salzburg U19 beat Chelsea U19 5-1 in UEFA Youth League on October 25, 2022.

Goals: F. Crescenti (13'), M. Mothersille (16'), K. Konaté (33' pen, 39', 71'), D. Lechner (90').

The match was played at Greisbergers Betten-Arena in Grödig.

Salzburg U19 vs Chelsea U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: Salzburg U19 5–1 Chelsea U19