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Chelsea U19 vs Salzburg U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Chelsea U19
Chelsea U19
CANC
13:00
Salzburg U19
Salzburg U19
3/3/2021UEFA Youth LeagueUEFA Youth League · Group StageCobham Training Centre

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Chelsea U1952%
×Draw20%
Salzburg U1928%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Chelsea U19
2.34
Salzburg U19
1.69

Chelsea U19 creates 38% more chances

Season form · 16 home / 16 away

creates per match

Chelsea U19
3.25
Salzburg U19
2.00

allows per match

Chelsea U19
1.38
Salzburg U19
1.44

finishing

Chelsea U19+0.00on par
Salzburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

76%Over
  • Over76
  • Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

74%Yes
  • Yes74
  • No26

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Chelsea U19 ↓

Salzburg U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
76%24%3.5
57%43%4.5
37%63%

Double chance

Chelsea U19 or draw
72%
Chelsea U19 or Salzburg U19
80%
Draw or Salzburg U19
48%

Winning margin

Chelsea U19 wins by 2+
32%
Salzburg U19 wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Chelsea U19 1+ goals
90%
Chelsea U19 2+ goals
67%
Chelsea U19 3+ goals
41%
Salzburg U19 1+ goals
82%
Salzburg U19 2+ goals
50%
Salzburg U19 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Chelsea U19 (draw refunded)
65%
Salzburg U19 (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Chelsea U19 at home — creates 3.25, concedes 1.38 · 16 matches

Salzburg U19 away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Chelsea U19 attack 3.25 + Salzburg U19 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 2.34

Salzburg U19 attack 2.00 + Chelsea U19 defence 1.38 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Chelsea U19 scores more
52%
level
20%
Salzburg U19 scores more
28%

Chelsea U19 at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Chelsea U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Chelsea U19 face Salzburg U19 (UEFA Youth League)

UEFA Youth League returns with Chelsea U19 hosting Salzburg U19. Match starts March 3, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Chelsea U19 host Salzburg U19 at Cobham Training Centre.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.