Salzburg U19 4–2 Benfica U19: Result & Stats

Salzburg U19

FT

4 – 2

HT: 3 – 1

Benfica U19

V. Sulzbacher 82'

P. Verhounig 41' (pen)

A. Daghim 13'

Diogo Spencer 4' (OG)

João Rêgo 70'

Ivan Lima 21'

12/12/2023

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 6Akademie Liefering Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 18+ matches

Salzburg U1938%

×Draw20%

Benfica U1942%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Salzburg U19Expected goals in this matchBenfica U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.13

2.22

Salzburg U19

2.13

Benfica U19

2.22

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 18 home / 24 away

2.67

creates per match

2.83

1.61

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Salzburg U19

2.67

Benfica U19

2.83

allows per match

Salzburg U19

1.61

Benfica U19

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salzburg U19+0.00on par

Benfica U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over81
Under19

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes78
No22

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salzburg U19 ↓

Benfica U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–01%

0–13%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–03%

1–16%

1–27%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–43%

3

3–02%

3–15%

3–25%

3–34%

3–42%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (7%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

99%1%1.5

93%7%2.5

81%19%3.5

63%37%4.5

43%57%

Double chance

Salzburg U19 or draw

58%

Salzburg U19 or Benfica U19

80%

Draw or Benfica U19

62%

Winning margin

Salzburg U19 wins by 2+

21%

Benfica U19 wins by 2+

24%

Team goals

Salzburg U19 1+ goals

88%

Salzburg U19 2+ goals

63%

Salzburg U19 3+ goals

35%

Benfica U19 1+ goals

89%

Benfica U19 2+ goals

65%

Benfica U19 3+ goals

38%

Draw no bet

Salzburg U19 (draw refunded)

48%

Benfica U19 (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

72%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salzburg U19 at home — creates 2.67, concedes 1.61 · 18 matches

Benfica U19 away — creates 2.83, concedes 1.58 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salzburg U19 attack 2.67 + Benfica U19 defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 2.13

Benfica U19 attack 2.83 + Salzburg U19 defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 2.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Salzburg U19 scores more

38%

level

20%

Benfica U19 scores more

42%

Benfica U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Benfica U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'

Diogo SpencerOwn goal

13'

A. Daghim↳ O. Lukić

21'

Ivan Lima

41'

P. VerhounigPenalty

43'

R. Zikovic

55'

L. Reischl

58'

Rodrigo Rêgo← Rafael Luís

64'

S. Leitner← M. Gevorgyan

69'

K. Lubrano← Gustavo Varela

70'

João Rêgo

72'

D. Lechner← P. Verhounig

72'

Z. Jánó← L. Reischl

78'

Alexander Murillo← O. Lukić

78'

V. Sulzbacher← J. Schuster

81'

T. Trummer

82'

R. Rego

82'

V. Sulzbacher↳ T. Paumgartner

84'

Gonçalo Moreira← Nuno Félix

85'

João Veloso← Diogo Prioste

Salzburg

Benfica

1

Mendes-Du

3

Oliveira

4

Fonseca

2

🥅

Spencer

5

Parente

6

▼

Prioste

10

▼

Luís

8

▼

Félix

11

⚽

Lima

7

⚽

Rêgo

9

▼

Varela

34

Zawieschi

44

▼

Gevorgyan

5

▼

Schuster

20

Pejazić

39

Žiković

24

A

Paumgartn

37

Trummer

21

A

▼

Lukić

9

▼

Reischl

23

⚽

▼

Verhounig

22

⚽

Daghim

Manager: S. Milicevic

64'▲S. Leitner←▼M. Gevorgyan

72'▲D. Lechner←▼P. Verhounig

72'▲Z. Jánó←▼L. Reischl

78'▲Alexander Murillo←▼O. Lukić

78'▲V. Sulzbacher←▼J. Schuster

Salzburg U19 substitutes

3Leitner18Lechner10Jánó15Murillo29Sulzbacher2Schablas32Künstner

Manager: Luís Araújo

58'▲Rodrigo Rêgo←▼Rafael Luís

69'▲K. Lubrano←▼Gustavo Varela

84'▲Gonçalo Moreira←▼Nuno Félix

85'▲João Veloso←▼Diogo Prioste

Benfica U19 substitutes

16Rêgo17Lubrano18Moreira15Veloso13Conceição12Ferreira14Okon-Engstler

Match Recap: Salzburg U19 vs Benfica U19

Salzburg U19 beat Benfica U19 4-2 in UEFA Youth League on December 12, 2023.

Goals: Diogo Spencer (4' o.g.), A. Daghim (13'), Ivan Lima (21'), P. Verhounig (41' pen), João Rêgo (70'), V. Sulzbacher (82').

The match was played at Akademie Liefering Platz 1 in Salzburg.

Salzburg U19 vs Benfica U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Salzburg U19 vs Benfica U19