Benfica U19 1–1 Salzburg U19: Result & Stats

Benfica U19

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Salzburg U19

João Veloso 82'

T. Paumgartner 87'

9/20/2023

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 1Caixa Futebol Campus

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Benfica U1949%

×Draw22%

Salzburg U1930%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Benfica U19Expected goals in this matchSalzburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.01

1.54

Benfica U19

2.01

Salzburg U19

1.54

Benfica U19 creates 31% more chances

Season form · 24 home / 16 away

2.58

creates per match

2.00

1.08

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Benfica U19

2.58

Salzburg U19

2.00

allows per match

Benfica U19

1.08

Salzburg U19

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Benfica U19+0.00on par

Salzburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Benfica U19 ↓

Salzburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Benfica U19 or draw

70%

Benfica U19 or Salzburg U19

78%

Draw or Salzburg U19

51%

Winning margin

Benfica U19 wins by 2+

28%

Salzburg U19 wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Benfica U19 1+ goals

87%

Benfica U19 2+ goals

59%

Benfica U19 3+ goals

32%

Salzburg U19 1+ goals

79%

Salzburg U19 2+ goals

45%

Salzburg U19 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Benfica U19 (draw refunded)

62%

Salzburg U19 (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Benfica U19 at home — creates 2.58, concedes 1.08 · 24 matches

Salzburg U19 away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Benfica U19 attack 2.58 + Salzburg U19 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 2.01

Salzburg U19 attack 2.00 + Benfica U19 defence 1.08 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Benfica U19 scores more

49%

level

22%

Salzburg U19 scores more

30%

Benfica U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Benfica U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

19'

M. Moswitzer

21'

M. Gevorgyan

55'

Rodrigo Rêgo← Carlos Almeida

65'

V. Sulzbacher← Elione Neto

65'

F. Crescenti← T. Trummer

66'

R. Luis

66'

O. Lukic

78'

J. Schuster← M. Schablas

78'

M. Neumann← Z. Jánó

82'

João Veloso

86'

K. Mustmaa← João Veloso

87'

T. Paumgartner↳ M. Gevorgyan

88'

João Conceição← Tiago Parente

88'

B. Atiabou← J. Mellberg

89'

J. Conceicao

89'

Ivan Lima← Hugo Félix

90+2'

T. Paumgartner

90+4'

S. Hamzic

Benfica

Salzburg

30

Hamzić

44

A

Gevorgyan

19

Moswitzer

2

▼

Schablas

6

▼

Mellberg

10

▼

Jánó

24

⚽

Paumgartn

37

▼

Trummer

21

Lukić

35

▼

22

1

3

4

2

5

▼

Parente

6

Prioste

8

Luís

10

⚽

▼

Veloso

11

▼

Félix

7

▼

Almeida

9

Rêgo

Manager: Luís Araújo

55'▲Rodrigo Rêgo←▼Carlos Almeida

86'▲K. Mustmaa←▼João Veloso

88'▲João Conceição←▼Tiago Parente

89'▲Ivan Lima←▼Hugo Félix

Benfica U19 substitutes

16Rêgo18Mustmaa13Conceição17Lima14Freitas15Okon-Engstler12Velickovic

Manager: S. Milicevic

65'▲V. Sulzbacher←▼Elione Neto

65'▲F. Crescenti←▼T. Trummer

78'▲J. Schuster←▼M. Schablas

78'▲M. Neumann←▼Z. Jánó

88'▲B. Atiabou←▼J. Mellberg

Salzburg U19 substitutes

29Sulzbacher45Crescenti5Schuster25Neumann27Atiabou39Žiković31Oelz

Match Recap: Benfica U19 vs Salzburg U19

Benfica U19 and Salzburg U19 drew 1-1 in UEFA Youth League on September 20, 2023.

Goals: João Veloso (82'), T. Paumgartner (87').

The match was played at Caixa Futebol Campus in Seixal.

Benfica U19 vs Salzburg U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Benfica U19 vs Salzburg U19