Salzburg U19 2–1 Atlético Madrid U19

Salzburg U19

FT

2 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Atlético Madrid U19

V. Sulzbacher 61' (pen)

E. Baidoo 56'

Romeo Hueso 65'

3/4/2025

UEFA Youth League · Round of 16Akademie Liefering Platz 1

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Salzburg U1942%

×Draw22%

Atlético Madrid U1936%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Salzburg U19Expected goals in this matchAtlético Madrid U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.94

1.78

Salzburg U19

1.94

Atlético Madrid U19

1.78

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 20 home / 25 away

2.65

creates per match

1.96

1.60

allows per match

1.24

creates per match

Salzburg U19

2.65

Atlético Madrid U19

1.96

allows per match

Salzburg U19

1.60

Atlético Madrid U19

1.24

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salzburg U19+0.00on par

Atlético Madrid U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over72
Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes71
No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salzburg U19 ↓

Atlético Madrid U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

88%12%2.5

72%28%3.5

51%49%4.5

31%69%

Double chance

Salzburg U19 or draw

64%

Salzburg U19 or Atlético Madrid U19

78%

Draw or Atlético Madrid U19

58%

Winning margin

Salzburg U19 wins by 2+

23%

Atlético Madrid U19 wins by 2+

18%

Team goals

Salzburg U19 1+ goals

86%

Salzburg U19 2+ goals

58%

Salzburg U19 3+ goals

30%

Atlético Madrid U19 1+ goals

83%

Atlético Madrid U19 2+ goals

53%

Atlético Madrid U19 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Salzburg U19 (draw refunded)

54%

Atlético Madrid U19 (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

63%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salzburg U19 at home — creates 2.65, concedes 1.60 · 20 matches

Atlético Madrid U19 away — creates 1.96, concedes 1.24 · 25 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salzburg U19 attack 2.65 + Atlético Madrid U19 defence 1.24 → ÷2 → 1.94

Atlético Madrid U19 attack 1.96 + Salzburg U19 defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Salzburg U19 scores more

42%

level

22%

Atlético Madrid U19 scores more

36%

Salzburg U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Salzburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

J. Fernandez

16'

L. Traore

19'

D. Beichler

36'

L. Traore

36'

L. Traore

38'

J. Brandtner← O. Adejenughure

56'

E. Baidoo↳ J. Brandtner

58'

J. Mellberg

59'

J. Schuster← J. Mellberg

61'

J. Fernandez

61'

J. Fernandez

61'

V. SulzbacherPenalty

62'

S. Esquivel

65'

Romeo Hueso↳ Daniel Muñoz

66'

Sergio Esteban← David Arza

81'

Diego Pérez← Pablo Pan

82'

Taufik Seidu← Jorge Rajado

83'

88'

89'

90+1'

90+2'

L. Bueno

Salzburg

Atlético

1

Esquivel

24

⚽

▼

Hueso

11

A

Muñoz

2

▼

Arza

4

Adrian

5

▼

Pan

8

Castillo

10

▼

21

22

19

41

14

5

▼

28

8

36

29

⚽

Sulzbache

37

Trummer

38

▼

Adejenugh

43

Aguilar

11

⚽

▼

Baidoo

Manager: D. Beichler

38'▲J. Brandtner←▼O. Adejenughure

59'▲J. Schuster←▼J. Mellberg

83'▲O. Lukić←▼E. Baidoo

Salzburg U19 substitutes

40Brandtner4Schuster21Lukić47Hussauf7Bendra42Camara30Hamzić18Moser15Murillo

Manager: Luis Bueno

66'▲Sergio Esteban←▼David Arza

81'▲Diego Pérez←▼Pablo Pan

82'▲Taufik Seidu←▼Jorge Rajado

88'▲Gonzalo←▼Romeo Hueso

Atlético Madrid U19 substitutes

9Esteban14Pérez30Seidu15Gonzalo26Tamargo13Díaz25Rubio7Fernández3Sancho