Atlético Madrid U19 0–5 Salzburg U19

Atlético Madrid U19

FT

0 – 5

HT: 0 – 3

Salzburg U19

O. Diakité 89'

T. Sahin 67'

D. Kameri 44'

R. Šimić 28' (pen), 15'

4/22/2022

UEFA Youth League · Semi-finalsCentre sportif de Colovray

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Atlético Madrid U1942%

×Draw23%

Salzburg U1936%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Atlético Madrid U19Expected goals in this matchSalzburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.76

1.61

Atlético Madrid U19

1.76

Salzburg U19

1.61

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 22 home / 16 away

2.09

creates per match

2.00

1.23

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Atlético Madrid U19

2.09

Salzburg U19

2.00

allows per match

Atlético Madrid U19

1.23

Salzburg U19

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Atlético Madrid U19+0.00on par

Salzburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Atlético Madrid U19 ↓

Salzburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Atlético Madrid U19 or draw

64%

Atlético Madrid U19 or Salzburg U19

77%

Draw or Salzburg U19

58%

Winning margin

Atlético Madrid U19 wins by 2+

22%

Salzburg U19 wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Atlético Madrid U19 1+ goals

83%

Atlético Madrid U19 2+ goals

52%

Atlético Madrid U19 3+ goals

26%

Salzburg U19 1+ goals

80%

Salzburg U19 2+ goals

48%

Salzburg U19 3+ goals

22%

Draw no bet

Atlético Madrid U19 (draw refunded)

54%

Salzburg U19 (draw refunded)

46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

56%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Atlético Madrid U19 at home — creates 2.09, concedes 1.23 · 22 matches

Salzburg U19 away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Atlético Madrid U19 attack 2.09 + Salzburg U19 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.76

Salzburg U19 attack 2.00 + Atlético Madrid U19 defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.61

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Atlético Madrid U19 scores more

42%

level

23%

Salzburg U19 scores more

36%

Atlético Madrid U19 at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Atlético Madrid U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

15'

R. Šimić↳ D. Kameri

24'

L. Ibertsberger

27'

J. Serrano

28'

R. ŠimićPenalty

34'

Marcos Denia← Carlos Martín

36'

R. Hofer

44'

D. Kameri↳ R. Šimić

46'

David Vilán← Adrián Corral

46'

Oscar González← David Navarro

53'

M. Pejazic← R. Hofer

53'

J. Halwachs← L. Ibertsberger

60'

61'

67'

70'

70'

Lucas Ricoy← Javier Serrano

70'

Rubén Valdera← Aitor Gismera

72'

M. Berki← T. Sahin

73'

M. Moswitzer← L. Agyekum

78'

M. Moswitzer

89'

O. Diakité

Atlético

Salzburg

21

Stejskal

4

Wallner

38

▼

Hofer

29

▼

Ibertsber

30

Baidoo

2

Atiabou

22

⚽

▼

Sahin

17

⚽A

▼

Kameri

8

⚽

Diakité

16

A

▼

Agyekum

15

⚽2A

1

4

3

11

▼

Corral

5

▼

Navarro

2

Diez

6

▼

Gismera

10

▼

Serrano

8

Barrios

9

▼

Martín

7

Jebari

Manager: Ricardo Ortega

34'▲Marcos Denia←▼Carlos Martín

46'▲David Vilán←▼Adrián Corral

46'▲Oscar González←▼David Navarro

70'▲Lucas Ricoy←▼Javier Serrano

70'▲Rubén Valdera←▼Aitor Gismera

Atlético Madrid U19 substitutes

19Denia17Vilán14González18Ricoy15Valdera20Boñar13Moreno

Manager: R. Aufhauser

53'▲M. Pejazic←▼R. Hofer

53'▲J. Halwachs←▼L. Ibertsberger

61'▲Z. Jánó←▼D. Kameri

72'▲M. Berki←▼T. Sahin

73'▲M. Moswitzer←▼L. Agyekum

Salzburg U19 substitutes

24Pejazic25Halwachs10Jánó13Berki19Moswitzer11Owusu31Tóth

UEFA Youth League: Atlético Madrid U19 0–5 Salzburg U19

Salzburg U19 beat Atlético Madrid U19 5-0 in UEFA Youth League on April 22, 2022.

Goals: R. Šimić (15', 28' pen), D. Kameri (44'), T. Sahin (67'), O. Diakité (89').

The match was played at Centre sportif de Colovray in Nyon.

Atlético Madrid U19 vs Salzburg U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: Atlético Madrid U19 0–5 Salzburg U19