Salyut-Belgorod 1–2 Novosibirsk: Result & Stats

Salyut-Belgorod

FT

1 – 2

HT: 1 – 1

Novosibirsk

8/19/2023

Second League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 6Stadion Salyut Belgorod

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Salyut-Belgorod20%

×Draw27%

Novosibirsk53%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Salyut-BelgorodExpected goals in this matchNovosibirsk

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.78

1.45

Salyut-Belgorod

0.78

Novosibirsk

1.45

Novosibirsk creates 86% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

0.78

creates per match

0.89

2.00

allows per match

0.78

creates per match

Salyut-Belgorod

0.78

Novosibirsk

0.89

allows per match

Salyut-Belgorod

2.00

Novosibirsk

0.78

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salyut-Belgorod+0.00on par

Novosibirsk+0.00on par

Total goals

Under62
Over38

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No59
Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salyut-Belgorod ↓

Novosibirsk →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–116%

0–211%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–23%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

65%35%2.5

38%62%3.5

19%81%4.5

8%92%

Double chance

Salyut-Belgorod or draw

47%

Salyut-Belgorod or Novosibirsk

73%

Draw or Novosibirsk

80%

Winning margin

Salyut-Belgorod wins by 2+

6%

Novosibirsk wins by 2+

27%

Team goals

Salyut-Belgorod 1+ goals

54%

Salyut-Belgorod 2+ goals

18%

Salyut-Belgorod 3+ goals

4%

Novosibirsk 1+ goals

77%

Novosibirsk 2+ goals

42%

Novosibirsk 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Salyut-Belgorod (draw refunded)

28%

Novosibirsk (draw refunded)

72%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

29%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salyut-Belgorod at home — creates 0.78, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

Novosibirsk away — creates 0.89, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salyut-Belgorod attack 0.78 + Novosibirsk defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.78

Novosibirsk attack 0.89 + Salyut-Belgorod defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.45

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Salyut-Belgorod scores more

20%

level

27%

Novosibirsk scores more

53%

Novosibirsk at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Novosibirsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff