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Novosibirsk vs Salyut-Belgorod — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Novosibirsk
Novosibirsk
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Salyut-Belgorod
Salyut-Belgorod
10/14/2023Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 14Stadion Spartak

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Novosibirsk73%
×Draw17%
Salyut-Belgorod10%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Novosibirsk
2.33
Salyut-Belgorod
0.73

Novosibirsk creates 219% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Novosibirsk
1.56
Salyut-Belgorod
0.78

allows per match

Novosibirsk
0.67
Salyut-Belgorod
3.11

finishing

Novosibirsk+0.00on par
Salyut-Belgorod+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Over
  • Over59
  • Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

53%No
  • No53
  • Yes47

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Novosibirsk ↓

Salyut-Belgorod →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–13%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–18%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–013%
2–19%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–010%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–14%
4–22%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (13%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
81%19%2.5
59%41%3.5
36%64%4.5
19%81%

Double chance

Novosibirsk or draw
90%
Novosibirsk or Salyut-Belgorod
83%
Draw or Salyut-Belgorod
27%

Winning margin

Novosibirsk wins by 2+
50%
Salyut-Belgorod wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Novosibirsk 1+ goals
90%
Novosibirsk 2+ goals
67%
Novosibirsk 3+ goals
41%
Salyut-Belgorod 1+ goals
52%
Salyut-Belgorod 2+ goals
17%
Salyut-Belgorod 3+ goals
4%

Draw no bet

Novosibirsk (draw refunded)
88%
Salyut-Belgorod (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Novosibirsk at home — creates 1.56, concedes 0.67 · 9 matches

Salyut-Belgorod away — creates 0.78, concedes 3.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Novosibirsk attack 1.56 + Salyut-Belgorod defence 3.11 → ÷2 → 2.33

Salyut-Belgorod attack 0.78 + Novosibirsk defence 0.67 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 73%?"

Novosibirsk scores more
73%
level
17%
Salyut-Belgorod scores more
10%

Novosibirsk at 73% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 73% does not mean "Novosibirsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Novosibirsk vs Salyut-Belgorod

Novosibirsk beat Salyut-Belgorod 3-2 in Second League A - Fall Season Silver on October 14, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Spartak in Novosibirsk.