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Salyut-Belgorod vs Metallurg Lipetsk — Second League - Group 3 2020

Salyut-Belgorod
Salyut-Belgorod
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Metallurg Lipetsk
Metallurg Lipetsk
3/29/2025Second League - Group 3Second League - Group 3 · Group 3 - 1Salyut Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 53+ matches

Salyut-Belgorod49%
×Draw24%
Metallurg Lipetsk27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salyut-Belgorod
1.67
Metallurg Lipetsk
1.16

Salyut-Belgorod creates 44% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 53 away

creates per match

Salyut-Belgorod
2.00
Metallurg Lipetsk
1.45

allows per match

Salyut-Belgorod
0.87
Metallurg Lipetsk
1.34

finishing

Salyut-Belgorod+0.00on par
Metallurg Lipetsk+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salyut-Belgorod ↓

Metallurg Lipetsk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–17%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
77%23%2.5
54%46%3.5
31%69%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Salyut-Belgorod or draw
73%
Salyut-Belgorod or Metallurg Lipetsk
76%
Draw or Metallurg Lipetsk
51%

Winning margin

Salyut-Belgorod wins by 2+
26%
Metallurg Lipetsk wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Salyut-Belgorod 1+ goals
81%
Salyut-Belgorod 2+ goals
50%
Salyut-Belgorod 3+ goals
23%
Metallurg Lipetsk 1+ goals
69%
Metallurg Lipetsk 2+ goals
32%
Metallurg Lipetsk 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Salyut-Belgorod (draw refunded)
65%
Metallurg Lipetsk (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salyut-Belgorod at home — creates 2.00, concedes 0.87 · 83 matches

Metallurg Lipetsk away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.34 · 53 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salyut-Belgorod attack 2.00 + Metallurg Lipetsk defence 1.34 → ÷2 → 1.67

Metallurg Lipetsk attack 1.45 + Salyut-Belgorod defence 0.87 → ÷2 → 1.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Salyut-Belgorod scores more
49%
level
24%
Metallurg Lipetsk scores more
27%

Salyut-Belgorod at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Salyut-Belgorod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League - Group 3: Salyut-Belgorod 1–0 Metallurg Lipetsk

Salyut-Belgorod beat Metallurg Lipetsk 1-0 in Second League - Group 3 on March 29, 2025.

The match was played at Salyut Stadium in Belgorod.