Metallurg Lipetsk 2–2 Salyut-Belgorod

Metallurg Lipetsk

FT

2 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Salyut-Belgorod

9/9/2023

Second League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 9Stadion Metallurg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Metallurg Lipetsk65%

×Draw20%

Salyut-Belgorod15%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Metallurg LipetskExpected goals in this matchSalyut-Belgorod

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.11

0.92

Metallurg Lipetsk

2.11

Salyut-Belgorod

0.92

Metallurg Lipetsk creates 129% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 9 away

1.11

creates per match

0.78

1.06

allows per match

3.11

creates per match

Metallurg Lipetsk

1.11

Salyut-Belgorod

0.78

allows per match

Metallurg Lipetsk

1.06

Salyut-Belgorod

3.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Metallurg Lipetsk+0.00on par

Salyut-Belgorod+0.00on par

Total goals

Over58
Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Metallurg Lipetsk ↓

Salyut-Belgorod →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–14%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–010%

1–19%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–08%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

58%42%3.5

36%64%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Metallurg Lipetsk or draw

85%

Metallurg Lipetsk or Salyut-Belgorod

80%

Draw or Salyut-Belgorod

35%

Winning margin

Metallurg Lipetsk wins by 2+

41%

Salyut-Belgorod wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Metallurg Lipetsk 1+ goals

88%

Metallurg Lipetsk 2+ goals

62%

Metallurg Lipetsk 3+ goals

35%

Salyut-Belgorod 1+ goals

60%

Salyut-Belgorod 2+ goals

23%

Salyut-Belgorod 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Metallurg Lipetsk (draw refunded)

81%

Salyut-Belgorod (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Metallurg Lipetsk at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.06 · 18 matches

Salyut-Belgorod away — creates 0.78, concedes 3.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Metallurg Lipetsk attack 1.11 + Salyut-Belgorod defence 3.11 → ÷2 → 2.11

Salyut-Belgorod attack 0.78 + Metallurg Lipetsk defence 1.06 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Metallurg Lipetsk scores more

65%

level

20%

Salyut-Belgorod scores more

15%

Metallurg Lipetsk at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Metallurg Lipetsk will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff