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Salyut-Belgorod vs Forte Taganrog — Second League A - Fall Season Silver 2023

Salyut-Belgorod
Salyut-Belgorod
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 3
Forte Taganrog
Forte Taganrog
9/17/2023Second League A - Fall Season SilverSecond League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 10Stadion Salyut Belgorod

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Salyut-Belgorod35%
×Draw25%
Forte Taganrog40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salyut-Belgorod
1.39
Forte Taganrog
1.50

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

creates per match

Salyut-Belgorod
0.78
Forte Taganrog
1.00

allows per match

Salyut-Belgorod
2.00
Forte Taganrog
2.00

finishing

Salyut-Belgorod+0.00on par
Forte Taganrog+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Over
  • Over55
  • Under45

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salyut-Belgorod ↓

Forte Taganrog →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
55%45%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Salyut-Belgorod or draw
60%
Salyut-Belgorod or Forte Taganrog
75%
Draw or Forte Taganrog
65%

Winning margin

Salyut-Belgorod wins by 2+
16%
Forte Taganrog wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Salyut-Belgorod 1+ goals
75%
Salyut-Belgorod 2+ goals
40%
Salyut-Belgorod 3+ goals
16%
Forte Taganrog 1+ goals
78%
Forte Taganrog 2+ goals
44%
Forte Taganrog 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Salyut-Belgorod (draw refunded)
47%
Forte Taganrog (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salyut-Belgorod at home — creates 0.78, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

Forte Taganrog away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salyut-Belgorod attack 0.78 + Forte Taganrog defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.39

Forte Taganrog attack 1.00 + Salyut-Belgorod defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.50

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Salyut-Belgorod scores more
35%
level
25%
Forte Taganrog scores more
40%

Forte Taganrog at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Forte Taganrog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Salyut-Belgorod vs Forte Taganrog

Forte Taganrog beat Salyut-Belgorod 4-0 in Second League A - Fall Season Silver on September 17, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Salyut Belgorod in Belgorod.