Forte Taganrog 1–0 Salyut-Belgorod: Result & Stats

Forte Taganrog

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Salyut-Belgorod

7/22/2023

Second League A - Fall Season Silver · Fall Season Silver - 2Forte Arena Taganrog

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Forte Taganrog70%

×Draw17%

Salyut-Belgorod12%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Forte TaganrogExpected goals in this matchSalyut-Belgorod

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.39

0.89

Forte Taganrog

2.39

Salyut-Belgorod

0.89

Forte Taganrog creates 169% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 9 away

1.67

creates per match

0.78

1.00

allows per match

3.11

creates per match

Forte Taganrog

1.67

Salyut-Belgorod

0.78

allows per match

Forte Taganrog

1.00

Salyut-Belgorod

3.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Forte Taganrog+0.00on par

Salyut-Belgorod+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes53
No47

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Forte Taganrog ↓

Salyut-Belgorod →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–09%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (11%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Forte Taganrog or draw

88%

Forte Taganrog or Salyut-Belgorod

83%

Draw or Salyut-Belgorod

30%

Winning margin

Forte Taganrog wins by 2+

47%

Salyut-Belgorod wins by 2+

4%

Team goals

Forte Taganrog 1+ goals

91%

Forte Taganrog 2+ goals

69%

Forte Taganrog 3+ goals

42%

Salyut-Belgorod 1+ goals

59%

Salyut-Belgorod 2+ goals

22%

Salyut-Belgorod 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Forte Taganrog (draw refunded)

85%

Salyut-Belgorod (draw refunded)

15%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Forte Taganrog at home — creates 1.67, concedes 1.00 · 9 matches

Salyut-Belgorod away — creates 0.78, concedes 3.11 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Forte Taganrog attack 1.67 + Salyut-Belgorod defence 3.11 → ÷2 → 2.39

Salyut-Belgorod attack 0.78 + Forte Taganrog defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Forte Taganrog scores more

70%

level

17%

Salyut-Belgorod scores more

12%

Forte Taganrog at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Forte Taganrog will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff