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Loughgall vs Limavady United — League #407 2026

Loughgall
Loughgall
FT
1 – 1
Limavady United
Limavady United
4/20/2019League #407League #407 · Relegation Round - 9Lakeview Park

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Loughgall33%
×Draw24%
Limavady United44%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Loughgall
1.43
Limavady United
1.69

Limavady United creates 18% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 16 away

creates per match

Loughgall
1.73
Limavady United
1.94

allows per match

Loughgall
1.45
Limavady United
1.13

finishing

Loughgall+0.00on par
Limavady United+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Loughgall ↓

Limavady United →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Loughgall or draw
56%
Loughgall or Limavady United
76%
Draw or Limavady United
67%

Winning margin

Loughgall wins by 2+
15%
Limavady United wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Loughgall 1+ goals
76%
Loughgall 2+ goals
42%
Loughgall 3+ goals
17%
Limavady United 1+ goals
82%
Limavady United 2+ goals
50%
Limavady United 3+ goals
24%

Draw no bet

Loughgall (draw refunded)
43%
Limavady United (draw refunded)
57%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
51%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Loughgall at home — creates 1.73, concedes 1.45 · 11 matches

Limavady United away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.13 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Loughgall attack 1.73 + Limavady United defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.43

Limavady United attack 1.94 + Loughgall defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.69

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Loughgall scores more
33%
level
24%
Limavady United scores more
44%

Limavady United at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Limavady United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Loughgall vs Limavady United

Loughgall and Limavady United drew 1-1 in League #407 on April 20, 2019.

The match was played at Lakeview Park in Loughgall.