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Limavady United vs Loughgall — League #407 2026

Limavady United
Limavady United
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Loughgall
Loughgall
2/21/2026League #407League #407 · Round 29The Showgrounds

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 11+ matches

Limavady United33%
×Draw27%
Loughgall40%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Limavady United
1.16
Loughgall
1.32

Loughgall creates 14% more chances

Season form · 18 home / 11 away

creates per match

Limavady United
1.22
Loughgall
1.36

allows per match

Limavady United
1.28
Loughgall
1.09

finishing

Limavady United+0.00on par
Loughgall+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Limavady United ↓

Loughgall →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Limavady United or draw
60%
Limavady United or Loughgall
73%
Draw or Loughgall
67%

Winning margin

Limavady United wins by 2+
13%
Loughgall wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Limavady United 1+ goals
69%
Limavady United 2+ goals
32%
Limavady United 3+ goals
11%
Loughgall 1+ goals
73%
Loughgall 2+ goals
38%
Loughgall 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Limavady United (draw refunded)
45%
Loughgall (draw refunded)
55%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Limavady United at home — creates 1.22, concedes 1.28 · 18 matches

Loughgall away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.09 · 11 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Limavady United attack 1.22 + Loughgall defence 1.09 → ÷2 → 1.16

Loughgall attack 1.36 + Limavady United defence 1.28 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Limavady United scores more
33%
level
27%
Loughgall scores more
40%

Loughgall at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Loughgall will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #407: Limavady United 0–0 Loughgall

Limavady United and Loughgall drew 0-0 in League #407 on February 21, 2026.

The match was played at The Showgrounds in Limavady.