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Osmaniyespor vs Esenler Erokspor — League #553 2026

Osmaniyespor
Osmaniyespor
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Esenler Erokspor
Esenler Erokspor
11/11/2018League #553League #553 · Round 12Osmaniye 7 Ocak Stadyumu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Osmaniyespor39%
×Draw33%
Esenler Erokspor28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Osmaniyespor
1.00
Esenler Erokspor
0.80

Osmaniyespor creates 25% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 5 away

creates per match

Osmaniyespor
1.00
Esenler Erokspor
0.60

allows per match

Osmaniyespor
1.00
Esenler Erokspor
1.00

finishing

Osmaniyespor+0.00on par
Esenler Erokspor+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Under
  • Under73
  • Over27

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

65%No
  • No65
  • Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Osmaniyespor ↓

Esenler Erokspor →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–017%
0–113%
0–25%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–017%
1–113%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–12%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–0 (17%) · grid covers 100% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
83%17%1.5
54%46%2.5
27%73%3.5
11%89%4.5
4%96%

Double chance

Osmaniyespor or draw
72%
Osmaniyespor or Esenler Erokspor
67%
Draw or Esenler Erokspor
61%

Winning margin

Osmaniyespor wins by 2+
15%
Esenler Erokspor wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Osmaniyespor 1+ goals
63%
Osmaniyespor 2+ goals
26%
Osmaniyespor 3+ goals
8%
Esenler Erokspor 1+ goals
55%
Esenler Erokspor 2+ goals
19%
Esenler Erokspor 3+ goals
5%

Draw no bet

Osmaniyespor (draw refunded)
58%
Esenler Erokspor (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
22%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Osmaniyespor at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.00 · 3 matches

Esenler Erokspor away — creates 0.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Osmaniyespor attack 1.00 + Esenler Erokspor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.00

Esenler Erokspor attack 0.60 + Osmaniyespor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Osmaniyespor scores more
39%
level
33%
Esenler Erokspor scores more
28%

Osmaniyespor at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Osmaniyespor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

League #553: Osmaniyespor 1–1 Esenler Erokspor

Osmaniyespor and Esenler Erokspor drew 1-1 in League #553 on November 11, 2018.

The match was played at Osmaniye 7 Ocak Stadyumu in Osmaniye.