Esenler Erokspor 2–1 Osmaniyespor: Result & Stats

Esenler Erokspor

FT

2 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Osmaniyespor

10/31/2020

League #554 · Group 3 - 7Vefa Stadı

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Esenler Erokspor54%

×Draw22%

Osmaniyespor24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Esenler EroksporExpected goals in this matchOsmaniyespor

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.90

1.20

Esenler Erokspor

1.90

Osmaniyespor

1.20

Esenler Erokspor creates 58% more chances

Season form · 5 home / 5 away

2.60

creates per match

1.40

1.00

allows per match

1.20

creates per match

Esenler Erokspor

2.60

Osmaniyespor

1.40

allows per match

Esenler Erokspor

1.00

Osmaniyespor

1.20

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Esenler Erokspor+0.00on par

Osmaniyespor+0.00on par

Total goals

Over60
Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Esenler Erokspor ↓

Osmaniyespor →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

60%40%3.5

37%63%4.5

20%80%

Double chance

Esenler Erokspor or draw

76%

Esenler Erokspor or Osmaniyespor

78%

Draw or Osmaniyespor

46%

Winning margin

Esenler Erokspor wins by 2+

31%

Osmaniyespor wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Esenler Erokspor 1+ goals

85%

Esenler Erokspor 2+ goals

56%

Esenler Erokspor 3+ goals

29%

Osmaniyespor 1+ goals

70%

Osmaniyespor 2+ goals

34%

Osmaniyespor 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Esenler Erokspor (draw refunded)

69%

Osmaniyespor (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Esenler Erokspor at home — creates 2.60, concedes 1.00 · 5 matches

Osmaniyespor away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Esenler Erokspor attack 2.60 + Osmaniyespor defence 1.20 → ÷2 → 1.90

Osmaniyespor attack 1.40 + Esenler Erokspor defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.20

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Esenler Erokspor scores more

54%

level

22%

Osmaniyespor scores more

24%

Esenler Erokspor at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Esenler Erokspor will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff