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Salisbury United vs Adelaide Victory — South Australia State League 1 2026

Salisbury United
Salisbury United
FT
1 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Adelaide Victory
Adelaide Victory
Unknown 41'
Unknown 73', 62'
5/9/2026South Australia State League 1South Australia State League 1 · Round 9

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Salisbury United45%
×Draw23%
Adelaide Victory32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salisbury United
1.77
Adelaide Victory
1.47

Salisbury United creates 20% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 52 away

creates per match

Salisbury United
1.76
Adelaide Victory
1.23

allows per match

Salisbury United
1.71
Adelaide Victory
1.77

finishing

Salisbury United+0.00on par
Adelaide Victory+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salisbury United ↓

Adelaide Victory →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
40%60%4.5
22%78%

Double chance

Salisbury United or draw
68%
Salisbury United or Adelaide Victory
77%
Draw or Adelaide Victory
55%

Winning margin

Salisbury United wins by 2+
24%
Adelaide Victory wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Salisbury United 1+ goals
83%
Salisbury United 2+ goals
53%
Salisbury United 3+ goals
26%
Adelaide Victory 1+ goals
77%
Adelaide Victory 2+ goals
43%
Adelaide Victory 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Salisbury United (draw refunded)
58%
Adelaide Victory (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salisbury United at home — creates 1.76, concedes 1.71 · 34 matches

Adelaide Victory away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.77 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salisbury United attack 1.76 + Adelaide Victory defence 1.77 → ÷2 → 1.77

Adelaide Victory attack 1.23 + Salisbury United defence 1.71 → ÷2 → 1.47

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Salisbury United scores more
45%
level
23%
Adelaide Victory scores more
32%

Salisbury United at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Salisbury United will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

41'
62'
73'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

South Australia State League 1: Salisbury United 1–2 Adelaide Victory

Adelaide Victory beat Salisbury United 2-1 in South Australia State League 1 on May 9, 2026.

Goals: ? (41', 62', 73').