Adelaide Victory 2–4 Salisbury United

Adelaide Victory

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 4

Salisbury United

D. D'Agostino 71' (pen)

A. Totani 45+1'

I. Shinto 38', 10'

L. Bebbington 15'

A. Totani 6' (OG)

6/15/2024

South Australia State League 1 · Round 15Rushworth Reserve

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Adelaide Victory45%

×Draw24%

Salisbury United30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Adelaide VictoryExpected goals in this matchSalisbury United

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.63

1.29

Adelaide Victory

1.63

Salisbury United

1.29

Adelaide Victory creates 26% more chances

Season form · 54 home / 33 away

1.44

creates per match

1.36

1.22

allows per match

1.82

creates per match

Adelaide Victory

1.44

Salisbury United

1.36

allows per match

Adelaide Victory

1.22

Salisbury United

1.82

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Adelaide Victory+0.00on par

Salisbury United+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Adelaide Victory ↓

Salisbury United →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Adelaide Victory or draw

70%

Adelaide Victory or Salisbury United

76%

Draw or Salisbury United

55%

Winning margin

Adelaide Victory wins by 2+

23%

Salisbury United wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Adelaide Victory 1+ goals

80%

Adelaide Victory 2+ goals

48%

Adelaide Victory 3+ goals

22%

Salisbury United 1+ goals

72%

Salisbury United 2+ goals

37%

Salisbury United 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Adelaide Victory (draw refunded)

60%

Salisbury United (draw refunded)

40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

47%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Adelaide Victory at home — creates 1.44, concedes 1.22 · 54 matches

Salisbury United away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.82 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Adelaide Victory attack 1.44 + Salisbury United defence 1.82 → ÷2 → 1.63

Salisbury United attack 1.36 + Adelaide Victory defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.29

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Adelaide Victory scores more

45%

level

24%

Salisbury United scores more

30%

Adelaide Victory at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Adelaide Victory will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

A. TotaniOwn goal

10'

I. Shinto

15'

L. Bebbington

38'

I. Shinto

45+1'

A. Totani

71'

D. D'AgostinoPenalty

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff