Salgueiro 0–1 Remo: Result & Stats | Serie C

Salgueiro

FT

0 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Remo

Jayme 63'

8/7/2018

Serie C · Round 17Estádio Cornélio de Barros Muniz (Salgueiro, Pernambuco)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Salgueiro40%

×Draw32%

Remo28%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SalgueiroExpected goals in this matchRemo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.06

0.83

Salgueiro

1.06

Remo

0.83

Salgueiro creates 28% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 64 away

0.89

creates per match

0.89

0.78

allows per match

1.23

creates per match

Salgueiro

0.89

Remo

0.89

allows per match

Salgueiro

0.78

Remo

1.23

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salgueiro+0.00on par

Remo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salgueiro ↓

Remo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–015%

0–113%

0–25%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–016%

1–113%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–08%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–12%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

85%15%1.5

56%44%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Salgueiro or draw

72%

Salgueiro or Remo

68%

Draw or Remo

60%

Winning margin

Salgueiro wins by 2+

16%

Remo wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Salgueiro 1+ goals

65%

Salgueiro 2+ goals

29%

Salgueiro 3+ goals

9%

Remo 1+ goals

56%

Remo 2+ goals

20%

Remo 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Salgueiro (draw refunded)

59%

Remo (draw refunded)

41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

24%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salgueiro at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

Remo away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.23 · 64 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salgueiro attack 0.89 + Remo defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.06

Remo attack 0.89 + Salgueiro defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.83

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Salgueiro scores more

40%

level

32%

Remo scores more

28%

Salgueiro at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Salgueiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

61'

Alexon← Iury

63'

Jayme

70'

Esquerdinha← Jayme

78'

André Victor← Marcos Vinicius

83'

Elielton← Rodriguinho

85'

Dudu← Vacaria

Salgueiro

Remo

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Sérgio China

61'▲Alexon←▼Iury

78'▲André Victor←▼Marcos Vinicius

Salgueiro substitutes

AlexonVictorTanakaPeuLucianoTamandaréMarlon

70'▲Esquerdinha←▼Jayme

83'▲Elielton←▼Rodriguinho

85'▲Dudu←▼Vacaria

Remo substitutes

EsquerdinhaElieltonDuduDiasPachecoIsacBrasíliaLevyLucas