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Salgueiro vs Nautico Recife — Serie C 2018

Salgueiro
Salgueiro
FT
1 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Nautico Recife
Nautico Recife
7/17/2018Serie CSerie C · Round 14Estádio Cornélio de Barros Muniz (Salgueiro, Pernambuco)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Salgueiro38%
×Draw30%
Nautico Recife31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Salgueiro
1.09
Nautico Recife
0.95

Salgueiro creates 15% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 51 away

creates per match

Salgueiro
0.89
Nautico Recife
1.12

allows per match

Salgueiro
0.78
Nautico Recife
1.29

finishing

Salgueiro+0.00on par
Nautico Recife+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Under
  • Under67
  • Over33

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salgueiro ↓

Nautico Recife →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–014%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–17%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (14%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
60%40%2.5
33%67%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Salgueiro or draw
69%
Salgueiro or Nautico Recife
70%
Draw or Nautico Recife
62%

Winning margin

Salgueiro wins by 2+
16%
Nautico Recife wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Salgueiro 1+ goals
66%
Salgueiro 2+ goals
30%
Salgueiro 3+ goals
10%
Nautico Recife 1+ goals
61%
Nautico Recife 2+ goals
25%
Nautico Recife 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Salgueiro (draw refunded)
55%
Nautico Recife (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salgueiro at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

Nautico Recife away — creates 1.12, concedes 1.29 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salgueiro attack 0.89 + Nautico Recife defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.09

Nautico Recife attack 1.12 + Salgueiro defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Salgueiro scores more
38%
level
30%
Nautico Recife scores more
31%

Salgueiro at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Salgueiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Salgueiro 1 – 1 Nautico Recife

Salgueiro and Nautico Recife drew 1-1 in Serie C on July 17, 2018.

The match was played at Estádio Cornélio de Barros Muniz (Salgueiro, Pernambuco).