Nautico Recife 3–0 Salgueiro: Result & Stats

Nautico Recife

FT

3 – 0

HT: 3 – 0

Salgueiro

J. Ortigoza 43', 18' (pen)

Robinho 13'

5/12/2018

Serie C · Round 5Itaipava Arena Pernambuco (Recife, Pernambuco)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Nautico Recife61%

×Draw26%

Salgueiro14%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Nautico RecifeExpected goals in this matchSalgueiro

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

0.57

Nautico Recife

1.52

Salgueiro

0.57

Nautico Recife creates 167% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 9 away

1.70

creates per match

0.33

0.81

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Nautico Recife

1.70

Salgueiro

0.33

allows per match

Nautico Recife

0.81

Salgueiro

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Nautico Recife+0.00on par

Salgueiro+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No66
Yes34

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Nautico Recife ↓

Salgueiro →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–17%

0–22%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–019%

1–111%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–014%

2–18%

2–22%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (19%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Nautico Recife or draw

86%

Nautico Recife or Salgueiro

74%

Draw or Salgueiro

39%

Winning margin

Nautico Recife wins by 2+

32%

Salgueiro wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Nautico Recife 1+ goals

78%

Nautico Recife 2+ goals

45%

Nautico Recife 3+ goals

20%

Salgueiro 1+ goals

43%

Salgueiro 2+ goals

11%

Salgueiro 3+ goals

2%

Draw no bet

Nautico Recife (draw refunded)

81%

Salgueiro (draw refunded)

19%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

23%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Nautico Recife at home — creates 1.70, concedes 0.81 · 53 matches

Salgueiro away — creates 0.33, concedes 1.33 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Nautico Recife attack 1.70 + Salgueiro defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.52

Salgueiro attack 0.33 + Nautico Recife defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 0.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Nautico Recife scores more

61%

level

26%

Salgueiro scores more

14%

Nautico Recife at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Nautico Recife will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

13'

Robinho

18'

J. OrtigozaPenalty

43'

J. Ortigoza

46'

João Paulo Peu← Bruno Menezes

58'

Alexon← Marcos Vinicius

64'

Régis Potiguar← Jobson

66'

André Victor← Willian Anicete

67'

Junior Timbó← J. Ortigoza

81'

Rafael Assis← Robinho

Nautico

Salgueiro

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽2

▼

Ortigoza

Pernambuc

Dudu

⚽

▼

Robinho

Manager: Dudu Capixaba

64'▲Régis Potiguar←▼Jobson

67'▲Junior Timbó←▼J. Ortigoza

81'▲Rafael Assis←▼Robinho

Nautico Recife substitutes

PotiguarTimbóAssisCarlosFernandinhoJiménezMedinaTharcysio

Manager: Sérgio China

46'▲João Paulo Peu←▼Bruno Menezes

58'▲Alexon←▼Marcos Vinicius

66'▲André Victor←▼Willian Anicete

Salgueiro substitutes

PeuAlexonVictorLucianoTamandaréTanakaErikysErinaldoEscuroMarlon