Salgueiro 1–1 Globo: Result & Stats | Serie C

Salgueiro

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Globo

João Paulo Peu 76'

Renatinho Carioca 89'

6/30/2018

Serie C · Round 12Estádio Cornélio de Barros Muniz (Salgueiro, Pernambuco)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Salgueiro44%

×Draw31%

Globo24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 585,131 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

SalgueiroExpected goals in this matchGlobo

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.12

0.74

Salgueiro

1.12

Globo

0.74

Salgueiro creates 51% more chances

Season form · 9 home / 17 away

0.89

creates per match

0.71

0.78

allows per match

1.35

creates per match

Salgueiro

0.89

Globo

0.71

allows per match

Salgueiro

0.78

Globo

1.35

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salgueiro+0.00on par

Globo+0.00on par

Total goals

Under71
Over29

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No65
Yes35

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salgueiro ↓

Globo →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–016%

0–112%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–017%

1–113%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–17%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–04%

3–13%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

84%16%1.5

55%45%2.5

29%71%3.5

12%88%4.5

4%96%

Double chance

Salgueiro or draw

76%

Salgueiro or Globo

69%

Draw or Globo

56%

Winning margin

Salgueiro wins by 2+

19%

Globo wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Salgueiro 1+ goals

67%

Salgueiro 2+ goals

31%

Salgueiro 3+ goals

10%

Globo 1+ goals

52%

Globo 2+ goals

17%

Globo 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Salgueiro (draw refunded)

65%

Globo (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

22%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salgueiro at home — creates 0.89, concedes 0.78 · 9 matches

Globo away — creates 0.71, concedes 1.35 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salgueiro attack 0.89 + Globo defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.12

Globo attack 0.71 + Salgueiro defence 0.78 → ÷2 → 0.74

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Salgueiro scores more

44%

level

31%

Globo scores more

24%

Salgueiro at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Salgueiro will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

Willian Anicete← Dadá Belmonte

64'

Bruno Menezes← Marcos Vinicius

69'

Vanger← Renatinho Potiguar

75'

Erick← Alex Sandro

76'

João Paulo Peu

80'

Negueba← Reinaldo

89'

Renatinho Carioca

90+2'

João Ananias← João Paulo Peu

Salgueiro

Globo

⚽

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: Sérgio China

46'▲Willian Anicete←▼Dadá Belmonte

64'▲Bruno Menezes←▼Marcos Vinicius

90+2'▲João Ananias←▼João Paulo Peu

Salgueiro substitutes

AniceteMenezesAnaniasLucianoAlexonVictorTanakaErinaldoEscuroPauloEduardo

Manager: Higor César

69'▲Vanger←▼Renatinho Potiguar

75'▲Erick←▼Alex Sandro

80'▲Negueba←▼Reinaldo

Globo substitutes

VangerErickNeguebaAlexandreCamiloCosmeSoaresEduardoNatalSilvaSilva